The Oregon Ducks are looking to make a statement when they take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Illinois vs. Oregon
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium
Oregon Dominates Purdue
Oregon opened strong against Purdue, with Jordan James setting the tone by scoring two quick touchdowns on their first two possessions. Dillon Gabriel continued the offensive onslaught, adding two touchdown passes, as the Ducks cruised to a 35-0 victory on Friday. This marked their first road shutout since 1992.
James was effective on the ground, racking up 50 yards on 10 carries and scoring in his fifth consecutive game. Gabriel was highly efficient, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Tez Johnson contributed seven receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown, helping the Ducks remain undefeated.
Though the Ducks left points on the field, it was their defense that stood out. After limiting Ohio State to 31 points the previous week, Oregon’s secondary shut down Purdue, allowing just 93 passing yards and no touchdowns. The unit forced an interception and held Ryan Browne to under 50% passing, with standout performances from Jabbar Muhammad, Brandon Johnson, and Kam Alexander.
Evan Stewart, who transferred from Texas A&M, continued his impressive run with four catches for 96 yards. He has developed strong chemistry with Gabriel, and over the past two games, Stewart has tallied 11 receptions for 245 yards and a touchdown. His growth as a playmaker could make Oregon’s offense even more potent alongside Johnson.
Despite Oregon’s overall success, their run game underwhelmed, managing only 131 yards on 3.7 yards per carry against Purdue, a team with one of the nation’s weakest run defenses. They’ll need to address this if they hope to improve offensively.
Illinois Was Too Much for Michigan
Luke Altmyer led Illinois to a 21-7 win against Michigan on Saturday, contributing both a passing and rushing touchdown. Tanner Arkin caught a two-yard pass from Altmyer for the first score, then helped set up another with a 36-yard run on a fake punt, leading to Altmyer’s one-yard touchdown run.
The win was Illinois’ first over Michigan since 2009, snapping a six-game losing streak. Michigan suffered consecutive losses for the first time since 2020.
Jabe Jacas was the star for Illinois’ defense, recording 13 tackles, six solo stops, and 2.5 of the Illini’s six sacks on Michigan quarterback Jack Tuttle. Altmyer was modest through the air, completing 9 of 18 passes for 80 yards, but added 48 yards rushing on 10 carries, showing his versatility.
Illinois had chances to extend their lead, reaching Michigan territory five times, but managed just one touchdown and two field goals. This game marked a solid rebound for the Illini after nearly blowing a big lead against Purdue earlier in the season.
Keys to the Game
Gabriel has been nearly flawless, and he completed over 80% of his passes against Purdue while spreading the ball between his playmakers. He faces a stiff test against Illinois, who limited Michigan to just seven points. Jacas will be key in pressuring Gabriel and disrupting Oregon’s offensive flow.
Illinois’ secondary will also need to be sharp against the dynamic duo of Johnson and Stewart. If they can force Gabriel into mistakes, it could be a game-changer for the Illini.
Oregon’s secondary stifled Purdue, allowing just 93 yards through the air. Altmyer was efficient but unspectacular against Michigan, throwing for only 80 yards. Illinois will need him to extend plays with his legs and capitalize on any gaps in Oregon’s defense. Oregon’s defensive backs will look to force Altmyer into difficult situations and limit his opportunities downfield.
Illinois struggled in the red zone in the second half against Michigan, settling for field goals rather than touchdowns. Their running game, led by Altmyer’s ability to scramble, will need to improve against Oregon’s stout defense. If Illinois can establish a ground attack and control the clock, they may keep Oregon’s explosive offense off the field for long stretches.
Both teams have opportunistic defenses capable of forcing turnovers, which could play a pivotal role. Oregon has capitalized on short fields this season, and Illinois will need to be careful with the ball, especially in scoring range. Special teams, particularly field goal accuracy, could swing momentum.
NCAAF Pick
This matchup features two contrasting styles: Oregon’s high-octane offense against Illinois’ grind-it-out approach. Oregon’s ability to pressure Altmyer and force third-and-long situations will be critical, as Illinois has struggled to sustain drives. On the other hand, Illinois’ defense is more than capable of slowing down Oregon’s pace, but containing Gabriel and his array of receivers for the full game will be a daunting task.
In the end, Oregon’s offensive firepower and opportunistic defense should give them the edge. Gabriel will exploit a few mismatches in the secondary, and Oregon’s defense will likely force Altmyer into a couple of critical turnovers. I like the Under here, to me, this total is high.
NCAAF Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) at Bet365
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