Indiana and Ohio State will be a battle between top-five opponents. Despite Indiana’s high ranking, top-rated sportsbooks have the Buckeyes favored by double digits.
I still think that the odds show too much respect for the Hoosiers. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Ohio State.
NCAAF Pick
- Ohio State -13 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Ohio Stadium
Should Indiana’s Resume Impress Us?
Indiana is undefeated, but its record is ultimately unimpressive. It is impressive in the sense that it was unexpected. Indiana is not known as a football powerhouse, so for this group to be undefeated at this point in the season merits commendation.
However, the Hoosiers have, at best, beaten teams with middling records. Its best wins came against a Nebraska team that has lost to Illinois and UCLA at home and against a Washington team that lost to Washington State and Rutgers.
One counter to this skepticism about the quality of its opponents is this: the Hoosiers have dominated their opponents. The counterargument is that we should treat Indiana like an elite team because it has beaten opponents in the way that elite teams do. However, some teams are just psychologically well-prepared to handle soft opponents.
Ole Miss, for example, dominated its non-conference competition. When the Rebels finally faced a serious foe, an SEC opponent that isn’t even particularly fearsome in the SEC landscape but that had a significant matchup edge with its defensive line, they lost. Kentucky upset them in Mississippi.
I expect Ohio State to be Indiana’s Kentucky and much more. My point is that Ohio State has the talent required to exploit Indiana’s weaknesses on a significant scale.
The Michigan Game
We have already seen other teams exploit Indiana’s relative lack of talent, only those other teams didn’t beat Indiana, because their talent advantage was very localized:
- Michigan was a two-touchdown underdog against Indiana but almost won purely because it had a significant advantage with one of its position groups, its defensive line.
- The Wolverines were able to pressure Indiana’s quarterback with a great number of sacks, pressures, and quarterback hits. They were also able to shut down Indiana’s ground game. As a result, Indiana came nine points short of covering the spread.
I want you to imagine what Ohio State can do with its collective level of talent and how the Buckeyes can cover the spread on Saturday with the extent of its advantages.
Ohio State’s Defensive Line
The Buckeyes are even more talented at the defensive line than the Wolverines. Heading into this season, PFF ranked Ohio State as the one team that possesses a better defensive line than Michigan’s.
Ohio State now has the fourth-ranked rushing defense despite the fact that it has faced three teams that rank top-30 in rushing offense. The Buckeyes actually held the Big Ten’s leading rusher, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, to 19 first-half rushing yards before he improved his stat line in the fourth quarter when the game was decided.
To give another example, they held Penn State’s starting running back to less than half of his season-average YPC total. Iowa and Penn State rank 16 and 17, respectively, in rushing offense but could not handle Ohio State’s run defense.
The strength of Ohio State’s defensive line is also evident in its pass rush, which will improve upon what Michigan did to the Hoosiers. Ohio State ranks fifth in sack rate, 43 spots better than Michigan does, thanks to eight different players who have collected multiple sacks this year.
Indiana’s quarterback was a long-time starter in the lowly MAC conference. He is easily fazed by strong talent, as we saw in the Michigan game when he barely helped his strongly favored team hold on to victory at home, such as Ohio State has in its pass rush as well as in the rest of its high-ranking defense.
Indiana’s Overrated Run Defense
Whereas Ohio State’s run defense is well-tested and well-proven, Indiana’s has yet to encounter a rush attack that ranks top-60.
The Hoosiers have faced good running backs and have produced disappointing results. For example, Washington’s Jonah Coleman averaged 5.5 YPC against them. And in this case, Ohio State has two dominant running backs:
They average 6 and 7.4 YPC, respectively. Both have supreme physical talents that will place them in the NFL. They are supported by an offensive line that likewise has too much physical talent for Indiana.
Ohio State’s offensive line averages about 40 pounds more than Indiana’s defensive line. Just like Judkins did to a Northwestern defender last week, Ohio State’s offensive line will push around and throw down Indiana’s defensive line. Expect large holes for the Buckeyes’ great running backs to explode through.
While Ohio State has two of the Big Ten’s eleven leading wide receivers, who have a great outlook with their accurate and efficient quarterback going up against a Hoosiers defense that allowed close to 300 yards to Maryland’s good but much less scary pass attack, the Buckeyes will be able to rely on their ground game.
Quarterback Will Howard does love play-action passing, as we saw in his team’s seven-point win at Penn State, and Ohio State’s high-caliber running back duo will open up plenty of play-action passing opportunities for Howard to use to continue completing over 70 percent of his passes.
Takeaway
Indiana is well-coached, for sure, but that is exactly why this game reminds me of an NCAA Tournament game in 2017 between Michigan State and Kansas.
The Spartans were well-respected because of their head coach, who could help them blow past inferior competition like Miami. But he could not cover up such a large talent gap. A lot of bettors loved Michigan State, but Kansas blew them out.
This is a great betting situation where a lot of people love the well-coached, solid-looking Hoosiers, but those bettors will be in for a shock when the Hoosiers finally face a team that is so talented and well-rounded like Ohio State.
Michigan almost upset the Hoosiers just by being very talented at their defensive line — the Wolverines even missed their elite cornerback in their game — but the Buckeyes are so talented at so many positions. On Saturday, the Hoosiers will fail by an even bigger margin to cover the spread than when they failed against Michigan.
I’m foreseeing a three-touchdown win for what will be a focused Ohio State team.
NCAAF Pick: Ohio State -13 (-110) at Bet365
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