The 2024 U.S. presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump is now less than 4 weeks away on November 5. Early voting has already begun, and voters will have to choose which topics are most important to them when they make their choice on the next leader of the country.
Foreign policy for international conflicts can absolutely affect how someone votes in November. Americans of any party generally care when their country is going to war with another country.
However, is it really a deal breaker for most voters? Let’s look at the international conflicts currently in play, how each party could use them to their advantage at the ballot boxes, and what voters believe are the most important issues for the 2024 election.
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The 2024 International Conflicts
This election is happening at a time when there are many international conflicts around the world that were not on the minds of voters in the 2020 election.
While the Israel-Palestine conflict goes back many decades, things escalated on October 7, 2023, when a Hamas-led terrorist attack killed over 1,100 people in Israel, and Hamas is still in possession of hostages to this day as we reached the 1-year anniversary of the attack this week.
Both parties are pro-Israel, but there is disagreement on whether Trump or Harris will be better at facilitating a ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages, and the work to get a two-state solution done. Iran is also escalating action with Israel, and that could be another conflict on which the United States as Israel’s ally will have to act on.
Also, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 and is still ongoing to this day with Democrats more willing than Republicans to send money to aid Ukraine.
Neither of these conflicts is necessarily new to those regions, but things have escalated during the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration.
How Candidates Differ on 2024’s Foreign Policy
The Trump campaign’s main argument for these international conflicts is that they weren’t happening under his presidency in 2017-21. He believes he projected strength as a leader and other countries feared stepping out of line under his watch.
He also believes himself to be a great deal maker, so he would get a ceasefire done quickly in Israel, who he urges needs to wrap things up with Palestine as fast as possible. He also considers Russian leader Vladimir Putin to be a friend, so he would stop sending aid to Ukraine. Trump has also talked about not defending NATO allies if they do not pay a fair share as all of his policies are built around the concept of “America First.”
While the Harris campaign cannot deny these conflicts have escalated while she’s been in office with Biden, she can outdo Trump’s promises by having better policies to handle them. Israel and Palestine have been at it since the late 1940s, but there has been a very brutal war going on in the last year since October 7 happened. A ceasefire is a must and that is something most Americans can agree on.
As for dealing with Ukraine and Russia, Americans have understood for many decades that Russia was not a good ally to have. They have been America’s adversary, and Trump’s approval of Putin does not sit well with many. The Democrats would continue aiding Ukraine as a way to fight Putin and Russia without actually sending soldiers on the ground to that region.
As long as American soldiers are not being deployed to fight in these wars overseas, these conflicts may not shake up the election outcome that much at all.
2024 Election Odds
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 | 63.64% | -154 | 60.61% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 40.00% | +130 | 43.48% |
Which Issues Do Voters Care About the Most?
If you look at data on the 2020 US presidential election between Biden and Trump, foreign policy was not a top vote-getter in terms of the issues voters are more interested in.
According to a Climate Nexus poll, these were the most important topics in the 2020 election for all voters regardless of party:
- Health care (34%)
- Economy/jobs (27%)
- Immigration (19%)
- Social Security (19%)
- Climate change (18%)
Foreign policy (5%) was way down at No. 12 on the list of 14 topics. Health care was an obvious No. 1 in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic was gripping the world at the time. However, that once-in-a-century pandemic is an outlier.
How about an election year like 2004? It was the first election after the terrorist attacks on 9/11, and it was a year after President George W. Bush started the Iraq War in 2003. That was one of the top issues among voters in 2004, and given Bush started the war, many voters felt he should get to end it too as he won reelection.
Still, the fact is that while the United States is aiding Ukraine and Israel in their current wars, it is not the same as physically being at war with American soldiers like in Iraq in the 2000s or the Gulf War in 1991. For that reason, voters are less likely to care about these issues than they would about things like the economy, inflation and health care.
You could see this at play in the 1992 election, in which incumbent George H. W. Bush lost to Democrat Bill Clinton. While the success of the Gulf War in 1991 initially gave Bush a boost in his approval rating, it did not last through the 1992 election. Bush lost that one largely due to domestic issues such as the economy and jobs.
What Matters Most to 2024 Voters
Unless Biden and Harris are going to enter a direct war with Iran or Russia in the next 4 weeks, international conflicts are not likely going to be enough of a concern to determine the election outcome in November.
According to a new Gallup poll, the economy is the No. 1 issue for 2024 voters as 52% believe it is extremely important, the highest rate since the 2008 Great Recession (55%). This is due to the inflation in recent years, raising prices on groceries, gas, and interest rates. This is what the majority of people care most about as it affects them so directly.
Other important topics in this election include abortion rights after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, preserving democracy after what happened on January 6, 2021, and immigration at the southern border.
While what’s happening in Israel is important to many as we have seen with protests around the country this year, at the end of the day, people are still going to vote on what affects them the most. That’s the economy above all. As the great James Carville once said in 1992, it’s the economy, stupid. This is an economy election more than anything happening overseas.
