The top sportsbooks have released their odds for Saturday’s game between Iowa and Ohio State.
Let’s dive into the NCAAF odds and find the best pick for this game.
NCAAF Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Ohio Stadium
The Total
Oddsmakers opened the over/under for this game at 44.5.
Now — and many superficial bettors are doing exactly this — if we look at Ohio State’s schedule, then the “over” looks like an obvious play.
Consider that, so far, the Buckeyes have scored 52 against Akron, 56 against Western Michigan, 49 against Marshall, and 38 against Michigan State.
It is all too easy to discuss the talent level of Ohio State’s offensive players, to mention these scores, and to just assume that Ohio State will put up 40 points in a given game — which would require the opponent, in this case Iowa on Saturday, to score just a couple of field goals for the “over” to hit.
However, any experienced bettor will know that easy money is hard to find and that it is wise to be suspicious whenever something feels too easy.
Sometimes won wagers do feel like they were too easy and we cerrtainly would come to hate ourselves if we simply picked the opposite of what seems obvious. My point here is that we should investigate why the total is as low as it is.
As I will discuss, the total is as low as it is because Iowa’s defense is extremely good. The odds show respect for Iowa’s defense.
Iowa’s Underperforming Defense So Far
When we consider Iowa’s results on the schedule so far, we again might feel tempted to take the “over.” The Hawkeyes have given up too many points to offenses that don’t approach Ohio State’s talent level. They gave up 20 points to Iowa State and 21 to Troy.
My point here is that Iowa’s defense deserves the respect shown to it by the current over/under because it has been underperforming so far and because it must be expected to perform better.
This is not a defense that is adjusting to a new defensive coordinator or that features new players who are learning to play together. Instead, this is a defense that is returning eight starters on defense. Key starters, including seven of the eight leading tacklers from last season, return on all three levels of the defense: on the defensive line, at linebacker, and in the secondary.
So far, the Hawkeyes have shown an unusual tendency to give up explosive plays. They did not suddenly lose the physical capacity to perform well. Instead, as we can see in the Troy game, they are allowing lesser opponents to catch them flat-footed and to otherwise punish them for lacking mental discipline.
Iowa, as when it locked down Minnesota in its last game by shutting out the Golden Gophers in the second half, has shown the eliteness of its defense in stretches of play.
With an opponent that it obviously knows to be very strong in Ohio State, expect Iowa to remain focused for all four quarters.
The Value of a Bye Week
In terms of the technical side of football, expect Iowa to work out what it needs to before Saturday’s game.
This is the beautiful thing about a bye week. Iowa’s long-tenured defensive coordinator is going to take his guys, who have so much experience playing together because they are all — at least all of the starters — juniors and older, and review film with them in order to fix any issues.
To be clear, this is still a top-level Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes rank 22nd in total defense.
They simply need to improve their mental discipline and use film to make minor adjustments. They will use the bye week to do these things.
The Talent Level of Iowa’s Defense
We see super talented players, throughout sports, sometimes underperform out of the gate. A great example in the NFL is CeeDee Lamb. Eventually, as in Lamb’s case, they work out their early-season issues.
My point here is not to make a false equivalency but to say that, in all of your sports betting, is it far more reasonable to assume that super-talented players will reach their potential than to assume that they will continue to underperform?
Iowa’s defense, on Saturday following its bye week, is going to be at its best. This is a group that returns top-level players, including decorated linebackers and notable run-stuffers on the defensive line, from a defense that ranked 14th against the run.
Likewise, this Iowa team returned four starters from last year’s secondary — last year, Iowa did the fourth-best job of limiting the opponent’s passer rating. We must expect this super-talented group to return to its elite level. To emphasize my point, consider that its defensive coordinator Phil Parker won the Broyles Award last year for top assistant coach.
Also consider that linebacker Jay Higgins was named Preseason First-Team All-American. There are more examples, but I have shown that Iowa has some of the best defensive personnel and coaches in the country.
They have the talent to match an Ohio State offense that, so far, has not been challenged. The Buckeyes have feasted on MAC schools, on Marshall, and on Michigan State.
None of those schools can be said to compare to Iowa in terms of being strong on defense. Even Michigan State, which gave up 24 points to Maryland but has also benefitted from playing low-profile teams like Florida Atlantic, ranks far behind Iowa’s currently underperforming defense.
Will Howard
Perhaps no Buckeye has benefitted more from Ohio State’s easy schedule so far than its quarterback, Will Howard.
Howard is able to complete more passes this year because he has talented wide receivers who have feasted on low-talent secondaries. It is easy for a quarterback to complete passes when he knows that his wide receivers will own their individual matchups.
I refuse to believe, however, that Howard has fundamentally changed who he is, relative to who he was when he played at Kansas State.
He has already thrown two interceptions this season and has been fortunate not to have thrown more. Throughout his career, he has struggled to maintain a good completion percentage and has made too many accuracy-related mistakes with the football, as evident in the fact that he threw ten interceptions last year.
In Iowa’s high-caliber secondary, he will finally face a solid challenge.
Last year, too, when he played for Kansas State, he thrived against soft competition but then struggled when he started to face stronger pass defenses.
Stopping The Run
Howard is not going to challenge Iowa’s secondary, but once we realize this, then we see that neither offense is going to score easily.
Iowa’s defense, even while it’s currently underperforming, still ranks fifth in run defense. On offense, Iowa relies so heavily on its rush attack that Ohio State is going to be able to stack the box.
The Hawkeyes’ quarterback is certainly no bum — he is a transfer from Michigan. But Cade McNamara is not going to put the “under” in danger.
While he has solved his interception problem — he has thrown zero interceptions in his last two games — he struggles to throw downfield, as evident in his minuscule yards per pass attempt average.
He will help sustain Iowa drives by keeping the defense somewhat honest. His competence will keep Iowa’s defense from being on the field too long. It will help flip the field. But his absence of prolific qualities will make scoring too difficult.
Takeaway
Ohio State can’t race through all of its games with prolific scoring totals. Eventually, the Buckeyes were going to run into a tough defense.
Now that tough defense has arrived in the form of an Iowa group that remains at least as able and talented as it was last year, when it gave up an absurdly low 14.8 points per game, with its returning production.
The Buckeyes, especially while they are held back by a quarterback whose inaccuracy and lack of downfield velocity are the much-discussed subjects of different scouting reports, will struggle to score. But they will also bottle up an Iowa offense that is too easily one-dimensional.
For the above reasons, let’s respect the fact that the over/under is as low as it is, and let’s recognize that the posted total is actually still too high.
Even if Ohio State were to double the number of points that Iowa allowed on average last year — and it won’t — the “under” would still hit because of the deficiencies of Iowa’s quarterback.
NCAAF Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
