As we near the end of May, Donald Trump is once again the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in November, as per the top betting sites in countries where political betting is regulated, such as Canada and the UK.
This race had been a dead heat for weeks, but Trump is again ahead according to the oddsmakers, as Joe Biden continues to struggle with his approval rating and getting young voters on his side.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s court cases continue to have little effect on how he is viewed as the leading Republican candidate for the 3rd-straight presidential election.
Given the circumstances, it’s no surprise that Biden challenged the former president last week to a pair of presidential debates, especially as political pundits have recently highlighted the need for Biden to take the stage against Trump.
Unorthodox Timing
However, the fact that the first debate, hosted by CNN, has been scheduled for June 27th is very telling of the pressure Biden’s camp might be feeling lately. The date is a bit unorthodox as neither will officially be their party’s nominee.
While both have secured the necessary amount of delegates, the Republican National Convention is, currently, scheduled for July 15th. Meanwhile, the Democratic Convention isn’t taking place until August 19th. We’re so early in the race that, as of press time, Trump has yet to announce who his running mate will be.
Let’s look at what is influencing the odds to favor Trump again, and if Biden has any way of turning this around in the next month.
Updated Election Odds
According to Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review), Trump has -125 odds to win the election, which is an implied probability of 55.6%. Meanwhile, Biden is at +130 odds, which is 43.48%.
At Election Betting Odds, Trump has soared back to a 52.5% chance of winning the election, while Biden has fallen to 40.0%. That Trump number is shocking as he was around 45% just 2 weeks ago.
What has been such a close race the last few months is starting to turn back in Trump’s favor. But given how quickly these odds can change, this recent change is unlikely to be permanent as we get closer to the election.
However, what is causing this bump for Trump and slide for Biden during May?
Biden’s Lingering Problems
The problems Biden has with winning over voters have been evident for some time. He can’t fix some of the issues like his record-setting age for a U.S. president and he’s not going to get any younger.
There’s also an issue with the Democrats banking on people voting against Trump rather than voting for Biden. Give the people a better candidate to vote for, and they are going to be more likely to show up in November or earlier when voting starts.
A lot of voters are turned off by both candidates and disappointed that we are stuck with a 2020 rematch of the oldest men to ever run for the presidency, in this country.
That could lead to a lower voter turnout after a record number of people voted in 2020, which was crucial to Biden’s victory.
Young, Wild & Free
However, Biden is also failing to reach young voters who may not have been eligible to vote in 2020. There is the new generation, and they are protesting at colleges for Palestine and largely are against Biden, or “Genocide Joe” as he is nicknamed on social media.
Biden spoke at a college commencement speech over the weekend, at Morehouse College in Georgia. Some students walked out or turned their backs to the president as he spoke.
Biden is going to need all the votes he can get from the youth, minorities and women. He is trailing in most of the battleground states, and these days, elections like this are largely decided by who wins states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
However, a recent poll from the New York Times highlighted how Trump currently leads Biden in five swing states that the incumbent won in 2020. These are:
- Arizona: Trump 49% – Biden 42%
- Georgia: Trump 49% – Biden 39%
- Michigan: Trump 49% – Biden 42%
- Nevada: Trump 50% – Biden 38%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47% – Biden 44%
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Biden holds a lead, but it’s very close with him currently raking in 47% of support compared to 45% for Trump.
Even worse for the incumbent, he and Trump are currently tied among 18 to 29-year-olds as well as with Latino voters, two demographics that gave Biden over 60% support in the last election.
Another telling factor is that Trump has secured 20% of support from Black voters, which is the highest level of support from this demographic for any Republican presidential candidate since 1964 when the Civil Rights Act was enacted.
Biden has to expand his base while Trump is largely keeping his loyal base intact.
Biden’s Approval Rating
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating is only 39.2% as we get closer to June. Historically, this could spell disastrous for his reelection chances if he does not get that number up soon.
Gallup has presidential approval ratings, for the month of June, going back all the way to Harry Truman in 1948. If you look at where each of the last 12 presidents up for reelection fared at this point of the year, Biden is in the danger zone:
- Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 – 74% (won)
- Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 – 72% (won)
- Richard Nixon, 1972 – 59% (won)
- Bill Clinton, 1996 – 55% (won)
- Ronald Reagan, 1984 – 54% (won)
- George W. Bush, 2004 – 49% (won)
- Barack Obama, 2012 – 46% (won)
- Gerald Ford, 1976 – 45% (lost)
- Harry Truman, 1948 – 40% (won)
- Donald Trump, 2020 – 38% (lost)
- George H.W. Bush, 1992 – 37% (lost)
- Jimmy Carter, 1980 – 32% (lost)
Truman was the only candidate under 45% to win another term while everyone above 45% went 7-0 in the November election.
Biden is going to hope for a June miracle, and he seems to be banking on an unusual presidential debate in that month.
Biden’s Debate Strategy
We know Trump will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a microphone on live TV, so he of course wants to debate Biden. Frankly, it’s probably something the nation needs to see even if it could be an embarrassment like most of their 2020 debates were.
And last week, Biden made the bold and unusual move to challenge Trump to a pair of debates. Presidents often do 3 debates, so saying he’d “do it twice” is actually selling the presidential debate format short. Also, it’s hard to say if a Clint Eastwood reference (“Make my day, pal”) is doing anything to help Biden with the youth vote.
Trump accepted and the debates will take place on June 27 and September 10. They will be hosted by CNN and ABC.
This is awkward since the debates have historically been closer to the election with dates like late September and October. June 27 is very early, and in fact, that is before the party conventions in July and August.
Good Strategy?
This is a questionable strategy by Biden, because the incumbent usually gains little from debating.
But by doing it in June, any potential momentum Biden gains from the debate is unlikely to carry itself over to the November election. On the plus side, if the debate is a disaster for Biden, then it’s better to suffer that on June 27 than it would be in October just weeks before the election when it’s still fresh in people’s minds.
So, doing the debate in June as opposed to October has its pros and cons, but few see it as a slam dunk idea by the Biden campaign.
Logistics
However, recent reports indicate that a change in some of the logistics of the debate could make it more interesting. According to AP Press, Biden’s camp outlined its preference for having no crowd and the ability to mute someone’s microphone after they go over the allotted time to speak.
But the chances we learn anything new or hear any fresh policies from these candidates from the debate? That is very unlikely.
We’ll see if a strong debate could, at least, end June on a high note for Biden, who still needs to get that approval rating up if he wants a November win to still be feasible.
