The Big 12 has four teams tied for 1st place, that includes Iowa State in their matchup with Kansas State. Because of this logjam and having five more squads at 5-3, the Big 12 announced on Monday, 256 possible scenarios could occur.
The simplest solution for coach Matt Campbell and his club is win and you’re in. But if you took a poll of the Big 12 coaches of what team from the group that is 5-3, the one you wouldn’t want to play is Kansas State. That is the Cyclones’ assignment this week.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium
Wildcats Look to Measure Up to High Standards
Though Kansas State (8-3, 4-7 ATS) has a chance to reach the Big 12 title game, they would need a near miracle for that to happen, with maybe the first aspect the toughest, beating Iowa State on the road.
For many Wildcats fans, this is a bit of a disappointing season, with three losses and the slimmest chances of making the conference championship. As it turns out, K-State is in rarified air, as they are one of eight schools to have won at least eight games four years running. (Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon and Ole Miss)
Another victory matches their nine-win season of a year ago which leads to a chance of reaching 10 wins, always a high benchmark.
Two elements have held the Wildcats back this year. The offense hasn’t always clicked. Though 30 PPG doesn’t sound bad, that is lower than the past two years when they reached 32 and 37 PPG. That goes along with how QB Avery Johnson has played. Nothing terrible, just not coming through in the biggest moments.
The same is true on the other side of the ball. The 21 PPG allowed is in line with the three previous years, yet in setbacks to Houston and Arizona State at home, the stop troops failed to make those big stops. Will the Wildcats measure up on Saturday?
Will Iowa State Take Advantage of Opportunity?
Matt Campbell’s club was in fourth place last Saturday morning before their matchup with Utah, not having much chance to play for the Big 12 championship. But that afternoon, both Colorado and BYU lost. While they didn’t know all the tiebreakers, their gut-check victory at the Utes set up this week’s chance to play for the title.
Iowa State (9-2, 6-5 ATS) was a stunner at 7-0 this season. Yet, there was a warning sign of impending trouble before the loss to Texas Tech. The Cyclones were bowled over by UCF’s run offense for 354 yards, needing to come from behind to take down the Knights 36-35. The first loss was to Texas Tech with the defense unable to make third down stops versus the Red Raiders. And in the next contests, the defensive front seven was shoved around for 237 yards by Kansas and 287 yards by Cincinnati.
That plummeted the Cyclones from the upper 40’s in run defense nationally to #99. Next up is K-State at #16 toting the pigskin.
Can Betch Handle the Responsibility?
That makes it important for QB Rocco Becht and the Iowa State offense to shoulder the load. Becht’s had a good year with 18 TD passes and six more running. As noted, the Wildcats’ defense will sag, making it necessary for the ‘Clones to reach the end zone and not kick field goals.
Coach Chris Klieman’s team will run blitz if the opponent has success running. That can set up the play-action pass offense for Becht to take advantage of.
Who Is the Right Side for the Wildcats vs. Cyclones?
With Iowa State just a 2.5-point favorite, the oddsmakers are telling us Kansas State is the better club because Iowa State is normally given 3.5 points for being at home.
This is the 108th meeting of Farmageddon. Kansas State will have a chance to ruin the Cyclones’ hopes because of how they run the ball and how flawed Iowa State’s run defense is. The Wildcats need to keep the pressure on Coach Campbell’s team and make them anxious about the possibility of faltering,
Conversely, the Clones should be able to matriculate up and down the field against a K-State defense that can force two three-and-outs and then permit three consecutive touchdowns.
Playing at home will help Iowa State, and Kansas State is 0-7 ATS in road games after a home win, and when we drill down further, 0-5 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in the last game.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
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