The No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks will face the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Here’s our preview of this East Region game, which includes a prediction, using the best NCAA Basketball odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 139.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks
Friday, March 21, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Climate Pledge Arena
The Story So Far
Liberty dominated Conference USA, capping off its impressive season with a Conference Tournament Championship. The Flames have one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, ranking 104th in scoring, sixth in field goal percentage, and seventh in 3-point shooting.
Their defense is just as formidable, ranking 10th in points allowed, 18th in opponent field goal percentage, and fourth in 3-point defense. Liberty’s deep and balanced scoring attack features seven players averaging at least eight points per game, making them a tough matchup.
Oregon enters the tournament after a rocky first season in the Big Ten, finishing 12-8 in conference play before falling to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.
The Ducks have an inconsistent offense, ranking 111th in points per game, 121st in field goal percentage, and 184th in 3-point shooting. Their defense hasn’t fared much better, sitting at 147th in points allowed, 133rd in opposing field goal percentage, and 75th in 3-point defense. However, they boast a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging double figures, led by center Nate Bittle.
Liberty returns to March Madness for the first time since 2021. With contrasting styles and strengths, this matchup has the potential to be one of the most competitive in the first round. Oregon made noise in last year’s tournament by upsetting No. 6 seed Creighton in the first round before falling in a double-overtime thriller in the next game.
Keys to the Game
Oregon’s balanced but inconsistent attack will be put to the test against a disciplined Liberty squad that thrives on efficiency at both ends of the floor. The Ducks, fresh off their first season in the Big Ten, have the talent to make a run but will need to overcome Liberty’s stingy defense and elite shooting to avoid an early exit.
The Ducks have struggled with efficiency all season, ranking outside the top 100 in scoring, field goal percentage, and 3-point shooting. While they boast four double-digit scorers, their ability to crack Liberty’s top-tier defense will be the deciding factor.
The Flames are among the best defensive teams in the nation. If Liberty can force Oregon into contested shots and disrupt their offensive rhythm, the Ducks could find themselves in trouble early.
Oregon’s leading scorer, Bittle, will be a focal point of the offense, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against Liberty’s interior defense. The Flames excel at limiting high-percentage looks, and if they can neutralize Bittle’s presence in the paint, Oregon will be forced to rely on its shaky outside shooting.
If Bittle can establish himself early and force Liberty to send help, it could open up opportunities for the Ducks’ supporting cast.
The Flames excel in 3-point shooting, and their balanced scoring approach makes them a difficult team to defend. Oregon’s 3-point defense is respectable, but it will need to be even sharper against a Liberty squad that spaces the floor well and can light it up from beyond the arc.
If the Flames get hot early, Oregon could find itself playing from behind. Liberty prefers a methodical, efficient style, while Oregon is more comfortable in a faster-paced game.
If the Ducks can force Liberty into uncomfortable possessions and push the tempo, they’ll have a better chance of dictating play. However, Liberty’s discipline and efficiency mean Oregon must be careful with the ball—turnovers could lead to easy baskets for the Flames, giving them an edge in a game where every possession matters.
NCAA Tournament Pick
This matchup will be a grind, with Liberty’s defensive pressure and outside shooting making things difficult for Oregon. Expect the Ducks to try to establish Bittle inside early, but Liberty’s ability to defend the paint and force tough shots will keep this one close throughout. If Oregon’s shooters struggle from deep, Liberty will have a prime opportunity to pull off the upset.
In the end, Liberty’s balance, 3-point efficiency, and defensive prowess should allow them to control the tempo and capitalize on Oregon’s offensive inconsistencies. The Ducks will battle, but the Flames’ disciplined play can keep them in the game and even help them get the upset win in a low-scoring game. I like the Under with a little sprinkle on Liberty +7.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 139.5 (-110) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
