Petco Park, home of the San Diego Padres, is the site of this year’s Holiday Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals and the USC Trojans.
This should be an entertaining game between an ACC powerhouse and a Pac-12 offensive juggernaut. Let’s check out the college odds board regarding this year’s Holiday Bowl clash and keep cashing our NCAAF picks!
Top Pick
- USC +7 ½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Louisville Cardinals vs. USC Trojans
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Petco Park
Stat Trifecta
- USC is ranked 4th in scoring, averaging 41.7 points per game.
- USC is ranked 5th in passing yardage, averaging 329.8 yards per contest.
- USC is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against an ACC opponent
Cards Bow to Noles
The Cardinals’ offense saved their worst for last. Prior to Louisville’s regular-season finale against Florida State, the team’s lowest offensive output came on September 29th in their 13-10 victory over NC State.
But after losing their penultimate regular season game, 38-31 to Kentucky, the Cardinals had an opportunity to play the role of spoiler and remove Florida State from CFP consideration. But the Seminoles’ 6th-ranked defense put the clamps on the Cards, holding Louisville to just two field goals, and stayed undefeated courtesy of a 16-6 victory.
Senior quarterback, Jack Plummer, was held to a season-low 111 passing yards, connecting on just 14-of-36, and getting sacked seven times. As for the running attack, Plummer was responsible for -32 of his team’s 77 yards as he continued to backpedal against the onslaught of the Seminoles’ pass rush.
Trojans Shrink Down the Stretch
USC started with so much promise this season. They had a high-octane offense commanded by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Williams, and their hot-shot head coach, Lincoln Riley, was ready to take the next step after leaving Oklahoma the year before and turning around a lackluster Trojans’ program.
Riley took a 4-8 team and guided them to an 11-2 record in 2022 before dropping a 46-45 decision to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl last year. It was a disappointing ending to a stunning debut season for Riley, but this year was going to be bigger and better as Williams returned with an extra year of experience under his belt.
After winning their first six games, the wheels fell off the wagon when they met ranked opponents that were able to exploit USC’s porous defense. No. 21 Notre Dame clipped the Trojans’ wings, sending them to their first loss of the year. That would be followed by defeats to No. 14 Utah, No. 5 Washington, No. 6 Oregon, and unranked UCLA in their final game of the season.
In that loss to the Bruins, USC employed a completely one-dimensional attack, Caleb Williams passed for 384 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while the running game went nowhere. The Trojans ran the ball 22 times but managed just 3 yards. Meanwhile, the Trojans’ defense was picked apart for three passing touchdowns and 199 rushing yards.
The Pick
It’s critical to set your own line before looking at what the oddsmakers are dealing so it won’t prejudice your view. I set this line at Louisville -3½ so you can imagine my surprise and delight when I learned that the Trojans would be getting north of a touchdown.
I am passing through three critical numbers (4, 6, and 7) with the neutral site dog in this one and am also getting a lethal offense. But yes, I am also being anchored with the Trojans’ lousy defense, however, the Cardinals are not of the same ilk as USC’s most recent ranked opponents, Washington, and Oregon.
Both teams have had several weeks to prepare for this one and I believe the break will do the Trojans good as they need a reset. The offense has been spectacular but the defense has been abysmal and it’s not surprising the offense may have sputtered in their regular season finale against UCLA as no matter what Williams did, the defense couldn’t keep the opposition out of the end zone.
Williams’ Replacement
But if you didn’t know, Caleb Williams will not be suiting up for this one. His highly touted backup, sophomore Miller Moss, will be making his first start after a year in which he has gone 23-of-32 (71.9% completion percentage) for 309 yards and a touchdown with no picks. Moss will have plenty of weapons at his disposal and he will be just fine against a middling Louisville defense.
As for Louisville’s offense, they don’t scare me. Especially now that Riley has had several weeks to put bandages over his hemorrhaging defense. They will be much better in this one and the offense will do what they always do – score touchdowns – even with Moss pulling the trigger.
Grab the points with the Trojans.
NCAAF Pick: USC +7 ½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
