We’re back with more college basketball, with three best bets for Sunday’s slate in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s keep the profit coming at top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Colorado vs. Marquette Over 147.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- James Madison vs. Duke Under 148.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Grand Canyon +6 (-110) at Bet365
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 12:10 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our AI Model predicts Colorado and Marquette will combine for 148 points in this Round of 32 matchup in the South Region. However, Caesars has a total of just 147.5, providing value on the Over.
Marquette’s Revival
The Marquette Golden Eagles didn’t look good in the first half of their Opening Round game against Western Kentucky. But after halftime, Marquette came out ready to go and earned a massive win over the Hilltoppers to move on into the next round.
Having Tyler Kolek lead the way was huge for the Golden Eagles. Kolek had been out for about a month with injuries. He’s their senior leader and one of their leading scorers.
That said, Marquette won’t add a high rate of offensive rebounds or get to the foul line much. However, the Golden Eagles should still shoot well from inside the arc. Marquette has drained 56.1% from two, while Colorado has allowed 50% from two this season.
Offensive Prowess
After all, Colorado just played in a game that exceeded 200 points against Florida. The Buffaloes won 102-100 in regulation. The defense didn’t look good then, and it won’t look good in this game, either.
On the other hand, Colorado should have more success on the offensive glass. The Buffaloes have also been consistent shooting the ball, hitting 39.4% from deep and 53.9% from inside the arc. Colorado has even nailed 78.4% from the foul line, which is one of the top ten rates in college basketball.
I’m expecting this game to hit the Over.
NCAAB Pick: Over 147.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
James Madison Dukes vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 05:15 PM ET at Barclays Center
The AI Model suggests Duke and James Madison will finish at 147 points. However, Caesars has a total of 148.5. Therefore, the play for this game is on the Under.
Remarkable Streak
The James Madison Dukes will take on the Duke Blue Devils. So when you’re watching this game, make sure to add the “s” if you’re rooting for James Madison!
That said, James Madison has the longest active winning streak in college basketball. The Dukes have won 14 games and just knocked off Wisconsin as a 12-seed.
The defense for the Dukes has been impressive. They earned a bunch of turnovers against Wisconsin and currently average 20% of turnovers per game. Opponents have also shot just 28.8% from deep and 48.5% from inside the arc against James Madison this season.
With the aggressive defense, Duke will find ways to get to the foul line, but the shooting percentage will likely shrink.
Statistical Standouts
On the other hand, Duke probably doesn’t get enough credit for its defense. The Blue Devils have held teams to 32.3% from three and 49% from inside the arc. Opponents don’t get to the foul line much against Duke, and opponents have added only 25.6% of offensive rebounds against Duke.
You can expect James Madison to limit turnovers on that end of the floor. But the rest of the metrics will likely trickle lower against Duke. The Dukes have shot 36.3% from deep and 54% from inside the arc, which is really good. But against the Blue Devils, it’ll be hard to sustain those numbers.
Therefore, I’m with the AI Model and love the Under for this 12-4 matchup in the Round of 32.
NCAAB Pick: Under 148.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
The AI Model believes Grand Canyon will only lose to Alabama, 87-82. That’s a five-point deficit, but you can get the Antelopes at +6 at Bet365.
Defensive Weaknesses
The Alabama Crimson Tide just doesn’t have a good enough defense to make it super far in this year’s Tournament.
The offense is legendary. They’ve added 100+ points in nearly a dozen games this year. However, the defense has allowed 30.4% of offensive rebounds a high rate of fouls, and has given up 51.1% from inside the arc.
Grand Canyon can do some big things against this defense. The Antelopes have added 34.1% of offensive rebounds and find their way to the foul line a lot. Beyond that, Grand Canyon has shot 34.2% from three and 52.3% from inside the arc while shooting better than 75% from the foul line.
Some teams don’t have what it takes to stick with an offense like Alabama. Grand Canyon does.
Potential for an Upset
On the other hand, Alabama has shot 37% from deep and 57.7% from inside the arc. That’s also really good. However, the Antelopes have held teams to 44.4% from inside the arc, which is the ninth-best rate in college basketball.
Alabama will add offensive rebounds and will get to the foul line at a high rate as well. But scoring inside should be harder for Alabama than Grand Canyon. That’s where the difference is.
I agree with the AI Model. Let’s take Grand Canyon at +6 over Alabama. An actual upset wouldn’t be super surprising, either.
NCAAB Pick: Grand Canyon +6 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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