The New York Mets will play the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the NLCS tonight. The winner of this best-of-seven series will face the New York Yankees in the 2024 World Series.
The Dodgers jumped on the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS, but the Mets responded with a win in Game 2. After that, the Dodgers stole Games 3 and 4 but couldn’t complete the road sweep, and now the Mets only trail 3-2 heading into Game 6 tonight.
The Mets have been in these types of situations all year. When their backs are up against the wall, the Mets respond. However, the Dodgers have looked like the best team in the MLB. The offense is red-hot, and the starting pitching is typically elite.
The Dodgers are playing a bullpen game, just like in Game 2. That Dodgers bullpen watched the Mets break out for seven runs in a 7-3 victory, and now we’ll get that exact matchup in Game 6.
Sean Manaea will take the bump for the Mets. He’s been their most consistent pitcher through the entire second half and has a 2-0 record with an ERA of just 2.65. The Dodgers can undoubtedly adjust to Manaea. After all, the offense has exploded against lefties. But we can’t lose the fact that the Dodgers struggled to even make contact against Manaea in Game 2.
The Mets can still force a Game 7. I’ll explain below.
Picks Summary
- New York Mets ML (+130)
- Over 8 (-120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
Can Sean Manaea Pitch Another Gem?
The New York Mets will give Sean Manaea the ball for Game 6. The lefty pitched very well against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the series. He allowed just two unearned runs and averaged more than a strikeout per inning.
However, he also walked four batters, which is something he can’t afford to do tonight.
After all, the Dodgers have hit a .246 ISO and wOBA of .378 against lefties over the last month using the projected lineup. The lineup has also struck out only 19.6% of the time against lefties and has walked slightly more than 7%.
Overall, Manaea hasn’t been terrible with walks. He’s only walked 8.6% of batters this season and 7% over the last 30 days. He’ll need to keep it that way against this dominant Dodgers lineup on the road.
Manaea has held his last 114 batters to a .288 wOBA and has allowed only 15% of line drives over the previous month. He’s struggled a bit against lefties but has absolutely dominated righties. The Dodgers should only have three lefties in the lineup. Of course, those three lefties are Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy, who have all hit lefties well over the last month.
Another Bullpen Game For the Dodgers
The Dodgers looked weak in Game 2 behind their bullpen. Ryan Brasier started Game 2 and will likely start this one. Eventually, the Dodgers will likely get to Landon Knack, who gave up a grand slam to Mark Vientos in that bullpen game.
The Mets aren’t hitting as consistently against righties as the Dodgers have against lefties. But they’ll face easier pitching throughout this game.
After all, if Brasier starts, the Mets lefties between Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have potential. Brasier, for example, has allowed a .500 ISO and wOBA of .428 to his last 16 lefties and has allowed a .233 ISO and wOBA of .369 to 64 lefties this season.
Meanwhile, Landon Knack has allowed a .265 ISO and wOBA of .413 to his last 52 batters this season. Against 303 batters this year, Knack has allowed a .211 ISO and wOBA of .318.
These could potentially be the first two pitchers that Los Angeles uses tonight. That benefits the Mets.
MLB Computer Pick
The Mets have better overall matchups heading into tonight’s game. Sean Manaea will need to limit walks, and the Mets probably don’t want him facing the Dodgers a third time around the order. That’s when things get a bit wacky for him.
On the other hand, the Mets will see five or six pitchers in tonight’s game. All New York needs is one Dodgers pitcher to struggle immensely. The more options, the more likely it is.
Knack was the culprit in the last bullpen game and, based on his stats over the last month, could easily be that guy again.
How fun would it be to have another Subway Series? The Mets at least survive Game 6 and force a Game 7 tomorrow.
MLB Pick: New York Mets ML (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
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