Both No. 1 seeds moved on into the Final Four in yesterday’s Elite Eight. Let’s see if the AI Model also expects the other two No. 1 seeds in tonight’s Elite Eight to get through.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, here is the best bet for one of tonight’s Elite Eight matchups using the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick
- Auburn -4.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Michigan State Spartans vs. Auburn Tigers
Sunday, March 30, 2025 – 05:05 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
The AI Model thinks Auburn will add a 76-71 win over Michigan State tonight. The Tigers are -4.5 and would cover in this scenario. The AI Model likes both No. 1 seeds to move on after all.
Auburn Will Defend The Three!
The Michigan State Spartans don’t take threes at a heavy rate. However, the Spartans will still need to nail threes to stick around in this game. It’s unlikely they’ll do that.
Michigan State has shot only 31.1% from downtown this season. Meanwhile, Auburn has limited teams to 29.6% from deep this year. Ultimately, Michigan State will be forced to take more shots inside early. But even then, Auburn has limited teams to 46.9% from two-point range. It won’t be easy for Michigan State anywhere on the floor.
The Spartans should be able to add a high rate of offensive rebounds. They’ve grabbed 35.5% of offensive rebounds per game, and Auburn isn’t terrific on the defensive glass. Still, let’s not forget that Michigan State defeated Ole Miss in the Sweet 16 and grabbed only five offensive rebounds in the entire game.
Auburn Needs To Limit Turnovers
The Auburn Tigers have been so good at minimizing turnovers on offense this year. They need to continue this against the Spartans.
The Tigers have only given up 13.6% of turnovers per game. Meanwhile, Michigan State has added only 16.1% of turnovers. If Auburn limits turnovers and wins the turnover battle, they’ll already be in better shape. Additionally, the Tigers have hit nearly 56% from inside the arc and shot a 55.2% effective field goal percentage, which is much better than Michigan State’s 51.2% effective field goal percentage.
The Pick
Don’t expect a high-scoring game. But I still like Auburn to escape with a victory to cover the 4.5-point spread.
NCAAB Pick: Auburn -4.5 (-110) at Bet365
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