We’ve got an exciting ten-game slate in the MLB tonight! I asked the AI Model for its three best bets of the slate and discussed each of its favorite bets below.
The Picks
- Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-190) at Bet365
- Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Ks (-108) at Bet365
- Dustin May Under 5.5 Ks (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 7:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Our AI Model predicts Yainer Diaz will only earn .753 total bases in tonight’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, his current prop is set at 1.5. The Under 1.5 Total Bases is at -190 MLB odds, which has a lot of value per the AI Model.
What Happened To Yainer Diaz?
The Astros’ center, Yainer Diaz, has started off the season super slow against righties. He’s added a .026 ISO and wOBA of .147 with 24.4% of strikeouts and 7.1% of walks. He’s also hit only 10.7% of line drives against righties and has added 46.4% of ground balls.
Meanwhile, he’s set to face Sonny Gray of the Cardinals. Gray has struck out 30.6% of batters, including 28.1% of righties. He’s also limited walks to 0.00% against righties and has held righties to a .303 wOBA.
Diaz doesn’t have the ideal matchup against Gray and the Cardinals tonight.
Consider taking Diaz to go Under 1.5 total bases at -190 in tonight’s Cardinals-Astros matchup. The AI Model knows!
MLB Pick: Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-190) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model projects that Dylan Cease will earn only 5.899 strikeouts in tonight’s game against the Cubs. However, his total is set at 6.5, so the under has some value in tonight’s showdown.
Dylan Cease Hasn’t Been Elite To Start The Year!
Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres has struck out 27.3% of batters to begin the year. Additionally, he’s allowed 9.1% of walks and has given up 28.6% of line drives with 38.1% of ground balls.
Ultimately, Cease has struck out just 20% of righties to start the season.
Either way, he’ll take on a Cubs lineup that has struck out only 15.5% of the time against righties to begin the year. Only Matt Shaw has struck out more than 20.8% of the time against righties in the Cubs’ projected lineup.
Plus, the Cubs should have five righties in the lineup against Cease, who is also a righty. Grab Cease to go Under 6.5 Ks.
MLB Pick: Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Ks (-108) at Bet365
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model believes Dodgers pitcher Dustin May will add 3.667 strikeouts tonight. However, the consensus line is stuck at 5.5. According to the model, the under 5.5 strikeouts is easily the best play on the slate.
Can Dustin May Add High Strikeouts?
Dustin May has worked his way back from an injury. He didn’t pitch at all last season but returned to the mound this year as one of Los Angeles’ starters.
Ultimately, he’s struck out only 16.3% of batters this season. He’s got great numbers beyond strikeouts and walks, but he’s falling behind in counts and not really adding a high strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Rockies lineup that couldn’t even score a run over the weekend against the Padres.
The Rockies have a super high strikeout rate against righties this season and last year. But something’s got to give. May isn’t earning strikeouts, and the Rockies have struck out way too much.
May has earned just 7.8% of swinging strikes to start the year, which is very poor. It’s hard to expect six strikeouts from a guy with these types of stats.
I’m with the AI Model and like the Under 5.5 Ks for Dustin May.
MLB Pick: Dustin May Under 5.5 Ks (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
