We’ve got a smaller slate of games in the MLB. But the AI Model still shared some value on a few of the games tonight. Without further ado, here are the best bets for tonight’s MLB slate.
The Picks
- Erick Fedde Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-133) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-165) at Bet365
- LaMonte Wade Under 0.5 Hits (+120) at Bet365
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, April 21, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
The AI Model believes Erick Fedde will allow 4.399 hits for the Cardinals tonight. Meanwhile, his consensus line is stuck at 5.5, with the Under at only -133. Consider backing Fedde to go under 5.5 hits allowed tonight.
Erick Fedde Will Be Fine!
Erick Fedde has walked more batters than he’s struck out to start the season for the Cardinals.
Fedde has struck out 12% and has walked 13.3%, which is unusual for any starting pitcher. That said, last season, he struck out 21.2% of batters and walked just 7.2%. I’d expect him to get back to those numbers sooner rather than later.
Additionally, Fedde has held teams to a .139 ISO and wOBA of .278 with 43.5% of ground balls. Once the strikeouts come up and the walks go down, he’ll cruise in many games this year.
That said, he’s battling a Braves lineup that has struck out nearly 25% of the time against righties. With a higher strikeout rate, Fedde should be locked in.
I’ll take a chance on Fedde to go under 5.5 hits allowed. You can thank the AI Model when this ticket cashes in!
MLB Pick: Erick Fedde Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-133) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Monday, April 21, 2025 – 8:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Our AI Model predicts Yainer Diaz will conclude tonight’s game with only .66 total bases. Yet, his total bases prop is stuck at 1.5, with the under juiced to -165. Consider fading Diaz tonight.
It’s Been a Terrible Start For Yainer Diaz!
Yainer Diaz has shown signs of stardom with the Houston Astros. It just hasn’t happened early in the season.
The Houston catcher struggled to begin last year and is struggling to start this year in the same way. He’s hit a .039 ISO and wOBA of .151 against his first 54 righties this season.
In addition, Diaz has struck out 24.1% of the time and has only walked 5.6% of the time.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. He’s a right-hander who has held his first 43 righties to a .146 ISO and wOBA of .160. Gausman has also allowed only 15.6% of line drives to righties and has added 25.6% of strikeouts with no walks.
Gausman looks terrific against righties while Diaz looks horrific. We’ll ride the Under for Diaz.
MLB Pick: Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-165) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, April 21, 2025 – 9:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI Model projects LaMonte Wade will earn .379 hits tonight. However, you can find his Under .5 hits at +120. That’s serious value!
LaMonte Keeps Swinging & Missing!
LaMonte Wade of the San Francisco Giants has a 35.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. He’s added a .170 ISO but has just a .216 wOBA against his first 54 righties.
Wade typically hits solid contact. However, the issue is that he rarely hits the ball. In addition, his solid contact hasn’t even resulted in good results. When Wade puts the ball in play, he’s hit a .143 BABIP with only a 6.9% barrel percentage. He’ll keep ground balls down and fly balls up, but that isn’t really doing much for Wade against righties.
The lefty will battle Quinn Priester of the Milwaukee Brewers. Ultimately, Priester isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher. But he’s still held his first 21 lefties to a .056 ISO and wOBA of .244 with 60% of ground balls and 6.7% of fly balls.
That should do the trick. I’ll back the AI Model and take LaMonte Wade to go under .5 hits.
MLB Pick: LaMonte Wade Under 0.5 Hits (+120) at Bet365
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