There’s nothing better than a full 15-game slate in the MLB! With so many bets to choose from, I asked the AI Model for its favorite three player props on the board. Check it out below!
The Picks
- Pavin Smith Under 1.5 Total Bases (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jose Quintana Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-142) at Bet365
- Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150) at Bet365
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model believes Pavin Smith will finish with only .36 total bases tonight for the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, his consensus line is stuck at 1.5 total bases, with the Under 1.5 at -155 via Bet365. Consider this bet!
Will Pavin Smith Connect?
While Pavin Smith has hit a .321 ISO and wOBA of .512 against righties this season, he’s also struck out 31.7% of the time against righties.
In fact, he’s also nailed at least two total bases in just three of his last 13 starts.
In addition, Smith is patient at the plate and has added 15.9% of walks against righties this season. That’s the second-highest rate in the Diamondbacks’ lineup.
Ultimately, Smith is a boom-or-bust candidate. He’ll either hit an extra base hit or strike out. That’s what his game is all about.
He’ll battle Zack Littell of the Rays tonight, who has struggled with lefties. Meanwhile, he’s still held lefties to 17.2% of line drives. In addition, Littell has also been a bit unlucky on the mound against lefties, allowing a .370 BABIP to lefties this year.
Look for that to change, too.
I’m on Pavin Smith to go Under 1.5 total bases.
MLB Pick: Pavin Smith Under 1.5 Total Bases (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 – 9:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Our AI Model predicts Jose Quintana will allow 4.249 hits with the Brewers tonight. However, his line is currently at 5.5, with the Under at 5.5 hits allowed at -142. That’s a super valuable play!
Is Jose Quintana Unhittable?
The Brewers brought in Jose Quintana very late in free agency. Yet, he’s produced better than most starting pitchers this season.
Quintana has only struck out 13% of batters this season. However, he’s also held 46 batters to a .071 ISO and wOBA of .226 with 56.8% of ground balls and only 18.9% of fly balls allowed. Quintana has limited his opponents’ barrel percentage to 5.4% and is pitching extremely well right now.
He’ll take on a Giants projected lineup that has hit just a .297 wOBA against lefties this season. The Giants are impatient at the plate and aren’t hitting at a high rate. That should work out well for Quintana.
I’ll side with the AI Model and take Quintana to allow under 5.5 hits.
MLB Pick: Jose Quintana Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-142) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The AI Model projects Marcus Semien will add only .58 total bases tonight for the Rangers. However, his total bases prop is stuck at 1.5, with the Under at only -150. According to our model, that’s a steal.
Marcus Semien Is In a Slump!
The Texas Rangers’ second baseman, Marcus Semien, is struggling against right-handed pitching. The righty has hit a .047 ISO and wOBA of .171 against other right-handed pitchers this season.
He’s also hit only 13.2% of line drives with just 32.1% of hard contact. In fact, his BABIP is currently just .135, meaning he’s earning a hit about 13.5% of the time when he’s putting the ball in play.
That’s the worst rate for any projected starter for the Rangers against righties.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Osvaldo Bido, who has held righties to a .102 ISO and woBA of .385. The wOBA number is a bit high, but go back to last year. Bido gave up only a .300 wOBA to 139 righties. He’ll likely get back to those numbers soon.
I’ll fade Marcus Semien tonight.
MLB Pick: Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150) at Bet365
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