Although only half of the MLB teams are on the schedule tonight, there are still some terrific games with value on the betting board. I used the AI Model to find these best bets and listed them below.
The Picks
- Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Kyle Farmer Under 0.5 Hits (+139) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dustin May Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) at Bet365
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Monday, April 28, 2025 – 8:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
The AI Model thinks Ronel Blanco will add just 5.1 strikeouts tonight. However, his strikeout total is at 5.5, with the under at +100. There’s value on Blanco’s under.
Facing Lefties is a Problem For Ronel Blanco!
The Houston Astros will send out Ronel Blanco for tonight’s game against the Detroit Tigers. Blaco is a right-handed pitcher who has struggled against lefties all season long.
Blanco has struck out only 9.5% of lefties and has allowed a .206 ISO and wOBA of .356 while adding 14.3% of walks.
Detroit will likely have more lefties than righties in its lineup tonight. Those five lefties have struck out 24.4% of the time, but likely won’t strike out nearly as much against Blanco.
After all, Blanco earned fewer strikeouts against lefties last season, too. He’s also allowed a .206 ISO and wOBA of .356 to his first 42 lefties this season.
Those lefties have added 28.1% of line drives and 31.2% of fly balls, with only 34.4% of ground balls. Blanco has earned just 8.4% of swinging strikes against lefties.
All in all, the Tigers have struck out just below 23% of the time. Four players have struck out more than 22.2% of the time against righties this season. But that means the majority of players in the Tigers’ lineup don’t strike out at a high rate against righties.
Take a chance on Blanco to go Under 5.5 Ks.
MLB Pick: Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Monday, April 28, 2025 – 8:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Our AI Model predicts Kyle Farmer will smash .367 hits in tonight’s game against the Braves. Meanwhile, his hits line is at .5, with the Under .5 at +140. That’s crazy good value.
Kyle Farmer’s Struggles Will Continue
Kyle Farmer is Colorado’s everyday second baseman. He’s only hit a .127 ISO and wOBA of .276 against right-handed pitchers as a right-handed batter.
While he’s facing a struggling Bryce Elder, it’s hard to expect anything from Farmer. He’s hit below 21% of fly balls and has added only 34.9% of hard contact with a 2.3% barrel percentage. He’s got one of the lowest barrel percentages on the Rockies against right-handed pitching.
Plus, Elder has allowed a .234 ISO and wOBA of .389, but he’s also induced 59% of ground balls against righties this season. Elder should be able to force Farmer into some weak contact on the ground multiple times in this game.
I’m taking Farmer to go Under .5 hits. There’s so much value with this play.
MLB Pick: Kyle Farmer Under 0.5 Hits (+139) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, April 28, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model projects Dustin May will record just four strikeouts. Yet, his strikeout line is at 5.5, with the under at only -115. That’s one of the best plays you’ll see all day using the AI Model.
Dustin May’s Strikeout Numbers Aren’t Good!
The Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t have Dustin May last season due to an injury. But he’s back this year and has pitched well. He just hasn’t earned a high rate of strikeouts.
Instead, May has added only 20.7% of strikeouts, including only 13.9% of strikeouts against righties.
Ultimately, he’s in line to face a Miami lineup that should have more righties than lefties. Those righties have struck out only 19.7% of the time against other righties this year.
Beyond that, May has only averaged 84.5 pitches per start this season. He’s not getting super deep into games in the first place.
Let’s take May’s Under to close out tonight’s picks.
MLB Pick: Dustin May Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
