With a full 15-game slate on the horizon, I asked the AI Model for its three best bets. Take a look below and decide if you want to tail any of these three bets.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Yankees vs. Orioles and Cardinals vs. Reds games!
The Picks
- Ryan Gusto Under 5.5 Ks (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Bryce Miller Under 6.5 Ks (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tirso Ornelas Under 0.5 Hits (+110) at Bet365
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 – 8:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
The AI Model thinks Ryan Gusto will record 4.667 strikeouts tonight for the Astros. However, his strikeout total is 5.5, and the Under is at -150 MLB odds. That’s screaming value.
Don’t Trust Ryan Gusto!
The Houston Astros will give Ryan Gusto the ball for tonight’s game against the Tigers. Gusto has struck out 24.4% of batters this year. However, he’s only added 20% of strikeouts against lefties.
That said, he’ll likely face a Tigers lineup that has five lefties. The majority of Detroit’s lineup is left-handed, which certainly won’t help Gusto.
In addition, the lefties in the Tigers’ order have struck out 24.4% of the time. If Gusto struggles to strike those lefties out, he’ll have an even harder time against the righties, who have struck out only 21% of the time against righties this season.
Gusto has also allowed a .212 ISO and wOBAS of .348 to his first 35 lefties faced this year. Beyond that, he’s averaged just 47 pitches per start this season. It’s unlikely Gusto can do enough to earn at least six strikeouts. He’d have to earn at least one strikeout an inning and go six innings against the Tigers.
That’s extremely hard to do.
I’ll side with the AI Model and take Ryan Gusto to go Under 5.5 Ks, even at -150 odds.
MLB Pick: Ryan Gusto Under 5.5 Ks (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Our AI Model predicts Bryce Miller will only fan 5.55 batters tonight. However, his strikeout total is stuck at 6.5, with the Under at -105. Here’s another strikeout prop that has a ton of value.
Bryce Miller’s Strikeout Rate Is Below Average
The Seattle Mariners will roll with Bryce Miller tonight. The right-hander has struck out only 22.2% of batters this season, while allowing a .322 wOBA with 31.4% of line drives and only 32.9% of ground balls.
Miller has held righties to a .138 ISO and lefties to a .114 ISO, but he’s still walked 23.4% of lefties faced this season.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle an Angels lineup that has hit a .238 ISO and wOBA of .337 against righties this year. There’s legitimate power in the Los Angeles lineup that could remove Miller from the game early.
It’s hard to imagine a world where Miller adds seven strikeouts against the Angels tonight.
MLB Pick: Bryce Miller Under 6.5 Ks (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model projects Tirso Ornelas will add .368 total hits tonight. However, his prop is at .5, with the under at +110. This is one of the best plus-money bets you’ll want tonight.
Tirso Ornelas Stands No Chance!
The Padres’ left fielder, Tirso Ornelas, has hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .162 against his first 14 batters this season. He’s limited strikeouts and has walked 14.3% of the time. But he’s also added just 10% of line drives, with a .100 BABIP.
Meanwhile, he’ll face Logan Webb of the Giants. Webb has held his first 62 lefties to a .053 ISO and wOBA of .264 with 56.1% of ground balls this season. Webb has even held lefties to below 10% of fly balls this season.
Ornelas doesn’t stand a chance. Back Ornelas to add under .5 hits in tonight’s game against the Giants.
MLB Pick: Tirso Ornelas Under 0.5 Hits (+110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
