It’s a getaway day for many teams in the MLB. Therefore, there are only five games on the entire slate. I’ll look at the later matchups and use the AI Model for some guidance on the best bets for tonight’s slate. Check it out below.
Picks Summary
- Twins ML (-125)
- Diamondbacks ML (+100)
- Brewers ML (-118)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, April 03, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Our AI Model believes the Twins will defeat the Astros, 3.7-3.4 today. Meanwhile, the Twins are -125 and have some value in today’s game. Consider the Twins on the moneyline.
Hunter Brown Looks Awful Against Lefties
The Astros will send out Hunter Brown for today’s game. The young right-hander struck out 30.8% of lefties, but he also allowed a .273 ISO and wOBA of .405 to those 13 lefties, with 15.4% of walks.
The Twins should have at least four lefties in the lineup. Those four lefties have hit a .340 wOBA against righties since last season and have a significant edge. That includes Matt Wallner, who has smashed a .280 ISO and wOBA of .403 against his last 232 righties.
Joe Ryan’s Better Matchup
The Twins will ride it out with Joe Ryan tonight. The right-hander allowed no walks and a 0.000 ISO against 21 batters in his first start.
He’ll take the mound and face an Astros lineup that has hit a .139 ISO and wOBA of .310 with 21.6% of strikeouts against righties dating back to last season.
The Astros’ lineup isn’t what it used to be without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. I’ll take the Twins and ride with the AI Model.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, April 03, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The AI Model projects the Diamondbacks will escape with a 4.3-4.2 win over the Yankees on the road. Right now, the Diamondbacks are +100 on the moneyline. There’s value there.
Merrill Kely Must Keep Walks Down?
This was never a problem for Merrill Kelly last season. However, Kelly struck out only 4.3% of batters and walked 17.4% of batters in his first start of the season.
Last season, Kelly struck out nearly 21% of batters and walked only 6.3%. If he can return to those numbers, he’ll perform well against the Yankees.
The Yankees can hit for power. However, the projected lineup has also struck out more than 23% of the time against righties dating back to last season. The offense has also walked 9.2% of the time, which is above average but not super high.
Kelly can force many ground balls and limit hard contact. He just needs more whiffs to go with it.
No Confidence In Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco was a late signing for the Yankees after many injuries to the starting rotation. In his first appearance, he allowed a .364 ISO and wOBA of .549 and struck out only 18.2% of batters.
He won’t have a fun time facing Arizona’s projected lineup that has hit a .343 wOBA against righties. The entire lineup has hit an above-average rate against righties in that catergory since last season.
I’m on the Diamondbacks at +100 MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, April 03, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
The AI Model believes the Brewers will dominate the Reds, 5.9-3.7. Yet, the Brewers are just -118 on the moneyline. Milwaukee moneyline is easily the best play on the slate.
Nick Lodolo Will Get Another Start!
The Cincinnati Reds will turn to lefty Nick Lodolo for tonight’s game. Lodolo struck out only 4.3% of 23 batters faced last time out. That said, he still earned a high rate of ground balls. But he also allowed a .227 ISO, which isn’t great.
He’ll battle a Brewers lineup that has hit a .319 wOBA against lefties dating back to last season. The Brewers also have a lineup with five batters who have struck out no more than 22% of the time.
This won’t be an easy go-around for Lodolo.
Will Nestor Cortes Ever Be The Same?
Nestor Cortes struggled against the Yankees in his season debut. He faced his former team and really never had a chance from the get-go.
He likely watched over his last start and will make the necessary corrections against a Reds team that isn’t nearly as good against lefties.
Since last season, the Reds have five batters who have hit an ISO of no better than .142 against lefties. Roll with the Brewers at -118.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-118) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
