The AI Model has been red-hot to begin the MLB season. Using the model, I’ve added three +EV bets and discussed why each bet has some good value tonight. Check it out below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Chase Dollander Over 3.5 Ks (-150)
- Roki Sasaki Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+108)
- Kumar Rocker Under 4.5 Ks (-105)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 08:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Our AI Model predicts Colorado’s Chase Dollander will earn 5.999 strikeouts against the Padres tonight. Meanwhile, his strikeout prop is stuck at 3.5 (-150). You’ll want to consider the over thanks to the AI Model.
Chase Dollander Is Special!
The Colorado Rockies rookie pitcher, Chase Dollander, struck out six batters in five innings in the first game of his MLB career. Ultimately, he struck out 27.3% of batters and walked only 4.5% in his debut. His ISO and wOBA were high against lefties, but he’ll only improve over time. It was literally his first major league start. He still showed a lot of promise.
Tonight, he’ll battle a Padres projected lineup that has hit a .088 ISO and wOBA of .304 against righties this season. He should perform at a high level against this Padres lineup. Plus, San Diego has five batters who have struck out at least 20% of the time against righties this season. Dollander got six in five innings last start and figures to earn strikeouts at the same rate as last game. He might even perform better.
The Padres are aggressive at the plate, which isn’t bad. If he can get swings and misses, he’ll keep the pitch count low and pitch deeper into the game.
The Pick
Ride Dollander to earn at least four strikeouts in tonight’s ball game.
MLB Pick: Chase Dollander Over 3.5 Ks (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 09:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model projects Roki Sasaki will only allow 2.333 hits in his start against the Chicago Cubs. Meanwhile, his Under 3.5 line is listed at +108. There’s some serious value there.
Let’s Trust The Rookie!
The Dodgers will throw rookie sensation Roki Sasaki. Although he’s a rookie in the MLB, he has plenty of professional experience from his time in Japan. He’s walked 20.7% of batters but has still limited his first 29 batters to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .327. Sasaki doesn’t allow many fly balls, either.
He might give up a bunch of walks. But those don’t count as hits! Plus, the Cubs have four batters in their projected lineup that have hit an ISO of no better than .122 against righties to begin the year.
The Pick
Let’s ride Sasaki to go Under 3.5 hits allowed tonight.
MLB Pick: Roki Sasaki Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model thinks Kumar Rocker of the Rangers will add just 3.6 strikeouts in tonight’s game against the Mariners. However, his strikeout prop is currently at 4.5. The under is the best play of this game.
What Gives?
Kumar Rocker has struck out just 10.5% of his first 38 batters this season. Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Mariners lineup that has struck out below 19% of the time against righties this season. Rocker has induced a high rate of ground balls and has limited fly balls. He’s just not getting strikeouts at a high rate this season.
On the other hand, the Mariners have three batters in the lineup that have struck out below 8.5% of the time against righties this year. Rocker will have some difficult at-bats in tonight’s game against the Mariners. He’s got enough targets, but with only 10.5% of strikeouts this season, it’s hard to ask for at least five strikeouts out of Rocker.
The Pick
Take Rocker to go Under 4.5 Ks using the AI Model.
MLB Pick: Kumar Rocker Under 4.5 Ks (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
