We’ve got a full slate of games in the MLB today! It’s also getting a bit warmer on the East Coast, which should allow for some better baseball today. I used the AI Model to find some of the best bets at the top-rated sportsbooks and shared them below. Let’s get after it!
Picks Summary
- Hayden Wesneski Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-148) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Alex Verdugo Under 1.5 Total Bases (-180) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Landen Roupp Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, April 19, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Our AI Model predicts Astros starter Hayden Wesneski will allow 4.2 hits in tonight’s game against the Padres. However, his line is currently at 5.5 with the Under at -148. There’s value all over the Under here.
Hayden Weskneski Has Good Stuff!
The Astros will roll with Hayden Wesneski for tonight’s game against the Padres. Wesneski has struck out nearly 31% of batters while only walking 4.4% of batters this season. In addition, he’s limited his wOBA to .266 against all 68 batters faced this year.
The Padres’ projected lineup has hit a .120 ISO and wOBA of .332 against righties this season. They’ve shown little power against righties. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gavin Sheets have been able to provide consistent power against righties.
Ultimately, Wesneski has struggled a bit against righties, giving up a .351 ISO and wOBA of .353. But he’s shut down lefties to a .111 ISO and wOBA of .151. Only Tatis is a significant concern for Weskneski. He should be able to keep the rest of the Padres in check.
The Pick
Ride Wesneski to allow under 5.5 hits allowed in tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Hayden Wesneski Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-148) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, April 19, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
The AI Model projects Alex Verdugo will add only .574 total bases for the Braves tonight. However, you can find his Under 1.5 total bases at -180. That’s screaming value!
No Faith In Alex Verdugo!
The Braves needed a spark after starting the season with a low number of wins. Therefore, they brought Alex Verdugo up and will likely put him in the lead-off spot until Ronald Acuña Jr. gets back.
Ultimately, Verdugo hit a .293 wOBA in 428 plate appearances last season against righties. The left-handed left fielder hit:
- 48.5% of ground balls.
- 25.1% of fly balls.
- 20.7% of line drives.
None of these numbers is above average. In addition, he hit a .248 BABIP, proving his contact wasn’t good enough to get on base consistently.
That said, he’ll take on Simeon Woods Richardson, who has limited lefties to a .112 ISO and wOBA of .303 last season. He’s struggled with them this season, but has still allowed just 18.2% of line drives.
Woods Richardson will see an improvement against lefties, especially against Verdugo.
The Pick
Grab Verdugo to go under 1.5 total bases.
MLB Pick: Alex Verdugo Under 1.5 Total Bases (-180) at Bet365
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, April 19, 2025 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model believes Landon Roupp will tally 4.857 strikeouts tonight against the Los Angeles Angels. Meanwhile, his total is currently at 6.5 with the Under at -135. The Under is the best play in this game by far.
Can Landen Roupp Sustain a High Strikeout Rate?
The Giants will send out Landen Roupp for tonight’s game against the Angels. The right-handed starter has struck out 29.4% of batters this season. However, he’s still allowed a .194 ISO and wOBA of .390 to 41 righties this season. In addition, he’s given up 10.3% of walks to 68 batters this year and a wOBA of .339.
Ultimately, his strikeouts are high, but he’s struggled in other areas. On the other hand, last year, he pitched against 217 batters and struck out only 21.7% of them. He was never consistently a terrific strikeout pitcher. Plus, the Angels’ projected lineup has hit a .219 ISO and wOBA of .316 with below 22% of strikeouts against righties.
It’s unlikely Roupp will continue to dominate hitters and add a strikeout rate near 30% moving forward.
The Pick
Let’s side with the AI Model and take his Under 6.5 Ks.
MLB Pick: Landen Roupp Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
