We’ve got a nine-game slate with four games scheduled for the afternoon. It’s not the most exciting slate, but the AI Model still found some value on tonight’s board. Check it out below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Carmen Mlodzinski Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-121) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Danny Jansen Under 0.5 Hits (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Joc Pederson Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 09:29 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model believes Carmen Mlodzinski will allow just 3.444 total hits in tonight’s game against the Angels. Mlodzinski’s current line is at 4.5, with the under juiced to -121. That’s the play.
Carmen Mlodzinski Is Doing Alright!
The Pirates will pitch Carmen Mlodzinski tonight. The right-hander has allowed a .135 ISO and wOBA of .397 to his first 82 batters. However, he’s also earned 50% of ground balls and has allowed just 18.3% of fly balls.
Ultimately, Mlodzinski has thrown an average of 74 pitches per game. While that’s not a lot, that kind of helps our bet. The less time he’s out there, the more chance he doesn’t allow a ton of hits. That said, if he continues to induce ground balls at a high rate and limit fly balls and barrel percentages, he’ll continue to put together quality outings for the Pirates.
After all, the Angels’ offense has a lot of power. But the team has also struck out 26.1% of the time against righties. In addition, the Angels’ projected lineup has walked only 5.9% of the time. Only Mike Trout has a walk rate higher than 8% on the Angels.
Mlodsinski held 209 batters to a .092 ISO and wOBA of .274 last season. If he continues to put up the analytics he’s put up this season, he’ll get back to those numbers in no time.
The Pick
I’m confident in Mlodsinski’s ability. Let’s take the Under 4.5 hits allowed. Thank the AI Model when this one hits.
MLB Pick: Carmen Mlodzinski Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-121) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our AI Model predicts Danny Jansen will add .462 hits in tonight’s game. However, his total is at .5, with the Under at +108. There’s value in fading Jansen tonight.
Don’t Count On Danny Jansen!
The Tampa Bay Rays’ catcher, Danny Jansen, has added a .125 ISO and wOBA of .244 against his first 34 right-handed pitchers. He’ll take on Corbin Burnes of the Arizona Diamondbacks. While Burnes hasn’t been excellent this season, we know he has ace material and good stuff.
Burnes has allowed a .314 ISO and woBA of .388 to his first 36 righties. However, he’s also added 43.3% of ground balls and has limited fly balls to 20%. If he keeps this up, Burnes will start to see better numbers all around.
This won’t be an easier matchup.
The Pick
Give me Danny Jansen under 0.5 hits.
MLB Pick: Danny Jansen Under 0.5 Hits (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The AI Model projects Joc Pederson will earn 0.2 total bases tonight. With his total bases prop at 0.5, you can find his under at +120. That’s a steal for the slumping Pederson.
Is Joc Pederson Breaking Out?
Joc Pederson went on one of the longest hitless streaks that baseball has seen. However, he hit a double yesterday, so many believe he’s breaking out. I don’t think so.
He’s hit a .017 ISO and wOBA of .094 with 25.4% of strikeouts against right-handed pitching this season. He’s also walked just 4.8% of the time, while smacking 11.9% of line drives and hitting 52.4% of ground balls.
He’ll battle J.T. Ginn of the Athletics, who has earned 57.1% of ground balls and has given up just 7.1% of fly balls to lefties. Ginn matches up well against Pederson.
The Pick
Give me the Under on Joc Pederson’s total bases prop.
MLB Pick: Joc Pederson Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
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