The surging Cleveland Guardians have the edge over Atlanta in our latest MLB computer picks if you bet the run line.
It’s quite common for the computers at OddsTrader to choose two different teams for your baseball picks: Team A on the moneyline, and Team B on the run line. That’s because their daily MLB projections don’t take the vigorish on either line into account. As long as Team B isn’t pegged to lose by 1.5 runs or more, the computers will split their picks for that matchup.
That is indeed the case – well, sort of – for the first of our three MLB picks from Wednesday’s slate. There shouldn’t really be any difference in value between betting the run line and the moneyline, but most baseball teams have generated better results against one of the two. Are the computers steering us wrong this time?
Picks Summary:
- Guardians +1.5 (-120) at Bet365
- Cubs/Brewers Under 8.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rangers/Red Sox Over 9.5 (-105) at WynnBET
Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, July 05, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Either way you slice it, life is good when you can get your chosen team at +1.5 in what’s projected to be a pick ‘em. The OT computers think 57-27 Atlanta and 41-43 Cleveland will each score 4.2 runs in regulation, so they’re not actually recommending either side on the moneyline, but we humans can infer that the Guardians are the sharp baseball pick as +140 home dogs.
Should we actually take that bet instead of Cleveland +1.5 (–120)? As it turns out, the Guardians have performed slightly better on the moneyline, losing 5.53 betting units instead of 6.64. But then you have to consider Atlanta’s plus-9.90 ML units earned, compared to a mere 0.06 units versus the run line.
We’ll stick with the spread in this case, if only because the computers might be underestimating Atlanta somewhat in this battle. Cal Quantrill (6.18 ERA, 5.53 xFIP) is having an awful season for Cleveland, and he melted down in each of his last three starts; however, Quantrill has managed to earn 0.11 units in profit on a team record of 6-6, so this could just be an anomalous rough patch for the fifth-year southpaw.
Mike Soroka (6.89 ERA, 4.82 xFIP) has definitely seen better times for Atlanta. Soroka will make his fourth start of the year this Wednesday, and just his seventh since tearing his Achilles in early 2020 and re-tearing it in 2021. Atlanta is 2-1 this year behind Soroka, but they needed their bats to come alive in both those victories; let’s kick Soroka while he’s still down for a standard single-unit wager.
MLB Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-120) at Bet365
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, July 05, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Once again, we’ve got two tasty totals on the MLB odds board to consider – and the tastier of the two is Under 8.5 for Wednesday’s tilt between the Cubs (Under 41-40-2 at press time) and Brewers (Under 44-37-4), which the OT computers have Chicago winning exactly 4-3.
Milwaukee will probably do better than that. Justin Steele has that shiny 2.43 ERA for the Cubs, but his 3.83 xFIP, while solid, doesn’t have quite the same lustre. The story is much the same for projected Brewers starter Adrian Houser (3.88 ERA, 4.52 xFIP), except with poorer numbers across the board.
Fortunately for us, American Family Field has been friendly to pitchers this year, posting a park factor of 92 for runs (No. 22 overall) at Baseball Savant. And there’s an 80% chance of rain over Milwaukee this Wednesday, albeit with 10-mph winds blowing towards right-center – plus they have a retractable roof if they need it. Can’t have everything.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, July 05, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Another Over at Fenway? Don’t mind if we do. The OT computers give Texas (Over 44-33-9) a slight edge in this matchup, 5.4 runs to 5.3 over the Red Sox (Over 46-39-1). Again, probably a bit too high for both sides, but a slight lean towards the Over makes perfect sense here.
Unless you’re at Coors Field – or the park in Mexico City – you’re not going to have an easier time scoring runs than you are at Fenway (121 park factor for runs). The Rangers have already scored more runs (505) than anyone else in the majors; the Sox (414 runs, No. 8 overall) have done their part, too.
Sadly, Brayan Bello (3.08 ERA, 3.84 xFIP) has strung together five straight Unders for Boston on five straight quality starts. But he and Jon Gray (3.21 ERA, 4.46 xFIP) both have higher xFIP numbers than ERA, so maybe the regression monsters will strike if the early evening heat doesn’t get to them first. Bet accordingly at the MLB odds board – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-105) at WynnBET
