MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Picks Summary
- Nationals vs. Braves: Braves -1.5 (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rangers vs. Rays: Over 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Padres vs. Rockies: Padres -1.5 (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
There’s so much action on the board today at the MLB odds. Our AI Model has been killing it recently. It’s picked three more potential winners for us today. Are you tailing the model?
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, June 11, 2023 – 01:35 PM EDT at Truist Park
- The AI Model projected the Braves to win today’s game 5.2-2.6. At home, the Braves are expected to win by a handful of runs against the lower-tier Nationals.
The Washington Nationals will pitch Trevor Williams. Williams has struggled recently, allowing a .221 ISO and wOBA of .336 against his last 108 batters faced.
Williams has walked over 10% of batters and struck out only 18.5% in the last month. He’ll take on a Braves offense that has hit a .199 ISO and woBA of .340 against righties over the last month. Batters 1-7 in the Atlanta projected order have hit a .184 ISO or greater against righties over the last month.
Atlanta hasn’t done well working out walks and has six batters striking out at a high rate, but with Williams struggling to find his putaway pitch, the Braves should have success putting the ball in play.
Bryce Elder’s Getting Better
Bryce Elder has limited teams to a .125 ISO and wOBA of .303 over the last month. Lefties aren’t hitting ground balls as much as righties against Elder, but Elder has still earned a high strikeout rate and has kept walks below 10%.
He’ll face a Nationals lineup with a .161 ISO and woBA of .313. They’ve also walked just 7.1% of the time. Elder won’t earn a high rate of strikeouts against Washington, but he’ll earn plenty of ground balls and keep the fly balls down to get past this Washington lineup.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, June 11, 2023 – 01:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
- The AI Model has Over this game by more than two runs tonight. The actual total for today’s game is at 8, but our model suggests over 10 runs in today’s matchup.
This outcome wouldn’t be surprising. The Rangers and Rays threw out some outstanding pitchers yesterday, and the total went way over.
Martin Perez is pitching for the Rangers. He’s not nearly as good. Perez has allowed a .192 ISO and wOBA of .333 against his last 131 batters faced. Righties have smashed him, hitting an ISO of .196 against him over the last month. The Rays lineup should have nine righties, giving Perez a hard time.
The Rays’ projected lineup has hit a .251 ISO and wOBA of .381 against lefties in the last month, so it’s fair to think the Rays will dominate offensively today.
Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan will take the hill for the Rays. He’s been much better than Perez, and he’s also another lefty. However, righties have hit a .184 ISO against him over the last month. There’s reason to be concerned if you’re McClanahan.
The Rangers are hitting an ISO of .225 and wOBA of .424 against lefties over the last month with their projected lineup.
Both lineups have consistently hit lefties this year. I agree with the AI Model. Take the Over.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Sunday, June 11, 2023 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
- The AI Model is also liking the Padres today. The model predicts the Padres will score 7.1 runs compared to Colorado’s 4.8 runs.
The Padres will call Blake Snell to the mound for today’s game. Snell has limited his ISO to .113 and woBA to .282 against his last 114 batters. He’s been worse against lefties, but he’s a lefty pitcher facing predominantly right-handed bats.
The Rockies should have seven righties in the lineup anyway. This Colorado projected lineup had hit a .124 ISO and wOBA of .271 against lefties over the last month. Even Coors Field can’t help them, especially with the Rockies striking out 29.5% of the time against lefties.
On the other hand, it’ll be Dinelson Lamet for the Rockies. He’s only faced 34 batters over the last month but was tattooed by lefties then. Lamet allowed a .316 ISO and wOBA of .602 against his last 22 lefties faced.
The Padres should have more lefties than righties in the lineup, including names like Juan Soto and Jake Cronenworth.
The Padres have also worked 11.7% of walks against righties over the last month with their projected lineup.
MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
