Thursday is one of the slowest days on the Major League Baseball schedule, so the computers at OddsTrader didn’t need to use up much electricity cranking out their daily projections. But this will be an unusually slow night for baseball, with just three games on the menu for our three-pack of computer-approved MLB picks.
As fate would have it, the Over is the correct pick for two of those games. The third remains a bit of a mystery box as we go to press, but we’ll do our best to get you prepared for Thursday’s abbreviated evening slate.
Picks Summary
- Mariners-Yankees Over 8 (-115) at Bet365
- Pirates-Marlins Over 7.5 (-120) at WynnBet
- Royals-Rays Over 7.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, June 22, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Aside from that one famous Division Series win in 1995, the Seattle Mariners have had all sorts of trouble dealing with the New York Yankees. This year has been no exception; New York took three of their first four regular-season meetings, including Tuesday’s 3-1 win to open this three-game set in the Bronx.
The OT computers recommended Under 7.5 for that contest, but the script has been flipped for Thursday’s finale, with the Yankees projected to beat Seattle 5.7 runs to 3.8. Why the jump in scoring? As with most things in MLB betting, it’s the two starting pitchers:
- Bryan Woo, SEA: 7.30 ERA, 2.32 xFIP (in 12.1 innings)
- Domingo German, NYY: 4.30 ERA, 4.29 xFIP
Woo is by far the trickier of the two to figure out. Thursday will be just his fourth big-league start; the first was a mess, then Woo settled down and led the M’s to victory twice, allowing two earned runs apiece as both those games went Under.
Is This Sustainable?
While Seattle has the top pitching staff in the majors according to the FanGraphs WAR charts, Woo is the team’s No. 28-ranked prospect, well behind the likes of Tuesday’s starter, George Kirby (No. 3). As long as the Yankees don’t get mesmerized by Woo’s 95-mph fastball, which he relies on way too heavily for now, they’ll be in good shape once the batting order comes around the second time.
German, meanwhile, has the Under at 8-5-1 on the season, but just 2-4 in his last six starts. One of those Overs was against Seattle on May 29, a 10-4 win for the Yankees (Over 7.5) where they torched Bryce Miller for eight earned runs. Woo will probably do better, but German did give up all four Seattle runs in 6.1 innings of work. There are enough unknowns in this matchup to recommend downsizing your Over bet, including a 70% chance of rain at Yankee Stadium. But this could definitely turn into another slobberknocker for the home side.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, June 22, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot Park
There’s an even lower total of 7.5 on the MLB odds board in Miami, where the OT computers have the Marlins beating the Pirates 4.4 runs to 4.1. That might be a tad high for both sides, not surprising when you look at the expected starters:
- Mitch Keller, PIT: 3.62 ERA, 3.32 xFIP
- Braxton Garrett, MIA: 3.88 ERA, 2.96 xFIP
Even if we give these pitchers a bit more credit based on their advanced stats, there’s enough wiggle room here for a slight lean on the Over. And while it’s a coin flip whether or not it’ll rain in Miami, this is a retractable roof stadium that might have been closed anyway on what promises to be a very warm evening.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-120) at WynnBet
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 22, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Our mystery-box game just got some clarity. After some deliberation, the Royals have decided to give Jose Cuas (4.15 ERA, 3.76 xFIP) the nod opposite Shane McLanahan (2.12 ERA, 3.70 xFIP), allowing the OT computers to make their projection: Royals 2.6, Rays 6.5.
That’s almost certainly too many runs for Tampa – and not enough for Kansas City. As usual, ERA (or some related input) appears to be a sticking point for the computers; on top of that, Cuas is making his first MLB start after a year-plus in the Royals bullpen.
At least we know the weather won’t be a factor at Tropicana Field. But with everything else happening in this contest, and the official MLB lines still pending at press time, this is clearly the most difficult of our three picks to evaluate. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
