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BETTING

MLB Computer Picks for March 28: Castillo’s Lefty Woes Continue?

We’ve got some more MLB action after yesterday’s Opening Day! I used the AI Model to identify some of the best bets for tonight’s MLB slate. There are three bets you’ll want to consider for tonight. Check it all out below.

Picks Summary

  • Braves-Padres Over 7.5 (-110)
  • Athletics +1.5 (-200)
  • Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres

Friday, March 28, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park


Our AI Model thinks the Braves and Padres will tie, 4-4. Ultimately, that’s eight runs, and the total is currently at 7.5 via Bet365. Consider the Over 7.5 in this game.

Will Reynaldo Lopez Continue His Success From Last Year?

The Braves will pitch Reynaldo Lopez for tonight’s game. He broke out last season and held teams to a .114 ISO and wOBA of .273. Lopez also struck out over 27% of batters and allowed below 8% of walks. He was terrific.

That said, he’s set to take on a Padres projected lineup that didn’t strike out much against righties. Instead, the Padres hit a .172 ISO and wOBA of .335 with only 17.1% of strikeouts against righties.

This lineup will put the ball in play, which usually favors the hitting team.

Dylan Cease Is In Line To Pitch For The Padres

The Padres have the better pitcher in Dylan Cease. However, while Cease has added a high strikeout rate and low walk rate, he’s still given up 45.8% of hard contact with only 40.2% of ground balls.

The top of the Braves’ order can capitalize and at least contribute a few runs in this game.

The Over is calling my name in this game.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) at Bet365


Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners

Friday, March 28, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park


The AI Model believes the Marienrs and Athletics will also tie, 3.6-3.6. However, you can find the Athletics at +1.5 (-200). Since a tight game is expected, this still has some value.

Jeffrey Springs Will Make His Oakland Debut!

The Athletics made some moves in the offseason to bolster their starting rotation, including the addition of Jeffrey Springs.

The lefty came from Tampa Bay and only threw against 142 batters last season before being injured.

He’s back now and will face a Mariners team that hit a .169 ISO and wOBA of .301 against lefties. Springs has legitimate potential against this Mariners group.

Luis Castillo Could Be Past His Prime

The Mariners will pitch Luis Castillo. He’s a righty, who allowed a .237 ISO and wOBA of .369 to his 345 lefties faced last season.

The Athletics have Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Tyler Soderstrom, who hit two home runs yesterday, as lefties in the lineup. Those three could have monster days against Castillo.

I’ll test my luck with the Athletics at +1.5.

MLB Pick: Athletics +1.5 (-200) at Bet365


Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, March 28, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium


The AI Model suggests the Dodgers will earn a 5-3.4 win at home. That means the Dodgers at -1.5 have some value. The Dodgers at -1.5 can be found at -110 via Caesars.

Jack Flaherty Will Face His Old Team!

The Los Angeles Dodgers made a run in the playoffs with Jack Flaherty. Now, he’s on the Tigers and facing his former team.

Flaherty allowed a .230 ISO and wOBA of .331 to 348 righties. He’ll have to battle a Dodgers lineup with four righties that each hit an ISO of at least .157 against righties last season.

Plus, Flaherty allowed a 26.3% line drive rate and gave up a .180 ISO to 747 batters. He’s bound to give up a couple of long balls.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Matchup Is Better

The Japanese phenom already pitched for the Dodgers in the Tokyo Series. He looked good against the Cubs and held 434 batters to a .135 ISO and wOBA of .272 last year. He can add a high rate of strikeouts but also a high rate of ground balls.

Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Tigers lineup that combined to hit a .160 ISO and wOBA of .306 against righties. That’s not good enough, not against Yamamoto and the Dodgers.

Take the Dodgers at -1.5.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-110) at Bet365

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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