Rangers vs. Mariners: Rangers +1.5 (-125) at Bet365
Picks Summary
- Rangers vs. Mariners: Rangers +1.5 (-125) at Bet365
- Padres vs. Twins: Twins ML (-120) at WynnBet
- Mets vs. Reds: Under 9 (-118) at SugarHouse
It’s no coincidence that baseball was the game that made modern sports betting what it is today. Without Moneyball, we might not have advanced statistical analysis informing our wagers; we’d definitely have a harder time making baseball picks without the computer projections at OddsTrader.
The computers aren’t infallible, though. We need to take their output and apply some sharp handicapping principles to make sure everything’s kosher – which we’ve done with each of our latest MLB picks. Let’s start on the Left Coast with the surprise leaders in the American League West.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 – 03:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Underdogs Poised to Win
Very few people picked the Rangers (21-13, plus-5.72 betting units at press time) to come out on top in the AL West. Texas had the fourth highest World Series odds heading into the new campaign at +5000, well behind the defending champion Houston Astros at +400.
The Mariners (17-18, minus-3.86 units) were second in the division at +1700, but their season has already been thrown into chaos by multiple injuries, the worst to former AL Cy Young hurler Robbie Ray (elbow); he won’t be back until late 2024 because of Tommy John surgery.
Value on Run Line
According to the OT computers, Seattle will still win Wednesday’s matchup 4.7 runs to 3.5, but there’s plenty of value with Texas +1.5 on the run line – even though we don’t officially know yet who’s going to start for the Rangers.
Chances are it’ll be Dane Dunning (4.82 xFIP). The fourth-year righty has made just one spot start thus far (a loss) after falling out of the rotation; Dunning is coming off surgery to repair a torn hip labrum, but has been pressed into service thanks to the elbow injury suffered by Rangers ace Jacob deGrom.
Luis Castillo (3.34 xFIP) is due up for Seattle at the top of their rotation, and he’s obviously been performing well, but he could use some help. The Mariners are just 4-3 in Castillo’s seven starts for a loss of 0.57 units on the moneyline, and two of those four wins were by a single run.
Having spent most of his career with the Cincinnati Reds (more on them later), Castillo isn’t all that familiar with the Rangers, but current Seattle hitters have a combined .696 OPS versus Dunning, which isn’t all that impressive. Spotting Texas 1.5 runs should be enough to get them to the pay window.
MLB Pick: Rangers +1.5 (-125) at Bet365
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
Division Leaders Clash
How about another division leader for Wednesday’s sports picks? The Twins (19-16, minus-1.82 units) are the only winning team in the AL Central, although they’re in the red right now after losing two of three to the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians.
Pitching Matchup Favors Twins
They’re still the right pick versus the Padres (18-17, minus-2.60 units), who themselves dropped two of their three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers this past weekend. The computers at OddsTrader have Minnesota prevailing 4.3 runs to 3.9.
That looks about right. We could recommend San Diego on the run line, but it’s the Twins who have the smaller-market value we crave, especially with Pablo Lopez (3.36 xFIP) taking the hill. It’s more dumb luck than anything that has Lopez down 0.69 units this year on a team record of 4-3; his .317 BABIP against would be a career-high, although that’s partly because of the new anti-shift rules.
Seth Lugo (3.76 xFIP) and his .337 BABIP against are in much the same boat. The Padres are 4-2 in his six starts, but have lost two of his last three, the lone victory coming over Cincinnati in his last appearance. The Twins won’t roll over that easily.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-120) at WynnBet
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Speaking of the Reds, they have the Over at 18-16 thus far, but the computers like the Under for Wednesday’s matchup with the Mets (Under 18-15-2), projecting New York to win 5.2 runs to 2.5.
Pitcher’s Duel Expected
We’re looking at a very strong pitcher’s duel between Justin Verlander (3.23 xFIP last year with Houston) for the Mets and Hunter Greene (3.69 xFIP) for the Reds, although it’s only the second start of the season for Verlander.
Sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-70s are in the forecast, but light winds are also expected to blow down the third-base line. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-118) at SugarHouse
