MLB Pick: Astros ML (-125) at SBK
Picks Summary:
- Astros ML (-125)
- Rangers ML (-167)
- Giants ML (-135)
They may be struggling, but the Houston Astros are the computer-approved choice for Sunday’s MLB picks versus the Chicago White Sox.
We’re approaching the three-quarters pole of the 2023 MLB regular season, and as expected, the game of baseball looks a lot different this year with all the new rules in place. Games are faster, scoring is up, and the standings look like someone drew the names from a hat.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Sunday, May 14, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
The defending champion Astros (20-18, minus-1.37 betting units at press time) are one of several high-profile teams getting off to a slow start this year. However, everything looks better when your opponents are the White Sox (13-27, minus-13.47 units), one of the least profitable teams in the majors thus far.
This is a closer matchup on paper than it might appear. According to the OT computers, Houston is going to eke out a win by the slimmest of projected margins, 4.4 runs to 4.3. While this would normally cause us to recommend Chicago +1.5 instead, there are mitigating circumstances in play here.
True, the White Sox should have the pitching advantage with Lucas Giolito (4.34 xFIP) taking the mound opposite young Hunter Brown (3.81 xFIP); FiveThirtyEight rates Giolito 23 Elo points higher than Brown, but as you can see by their xFIP numbers, Brown appears to have outperformed his veteran colleague – small sample size notwithstanding.
Everything else falls apart for Chicago from there. The Sox bullpen is one of the worst in the majors at No. 29 on the FanGraphs WAR charts, well behind Houston’s at No. 11. And while the Astros are struggling at the plate (No. 22 in hitting WAR), they’re still ahead of the Pale Hose (No. 26).
It’s roughly a coin flip whether it’s going to rain on the South Side this Sunday; with temperatures in the mid-50s and 15-mph wins blowing in from the right field, the potential for chaos benefits the underdog White Sox more than Houston. We’ll still recommend the Astros for your baseball picks, but remember to keep that bet size small.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-125) at SBK
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, May 14, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
If there’s one team worse than Chicago, it’s the Oakland A’s (9-31, minus-15.35 units). They’ve taken another step towards moving to Las Vegas with that announced deal to build a stadium on the Tropicana site, making them even more of a lame duck than they were coming into the 2023 campaign.
The computers say this duck is going to get shot down 6.2 runs to 4.4 by the Rangers, who continue to lead the American League West at 23-15 (plus-5.81 units) by three games on third-place Houston. Why so many runs for a game with an 8.5-run total on the overseas MLB odds board?
It might be those tricky ERAs again. Projected Texas starter Andrew Heaney (5.25 ERA, 4.75 xFIP) is probably better than advertised; same for Oakland’s Drew Rucinski (8.16 ERA, 6.66 xFIP), although he’s still sketchy enough to make betting on the Rangers a can of corn.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-167) at SBK
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, May 14, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
We recommended the Diamondbacks (21-18, plus-4.95 units) for Saturday’s matchup, but the script has been flipped – the Giants (17-21, minus-3.88 units) are now the correct choice for your Sunday sports picks.
At least they are on the moneyline. The computers have San Francisco winning 6.1 runs to 5.1, which again seems like too many runs for both sides; this time we’re blaming the small sample size on Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt (12.10 ERA, 6.11 xFIP in 9.2 innings), who will make his third big-league start this Sunday.
Pfaadt is a decent prospect for the Giants, ranked No. 15 in their system according to FanGraphs, but he’s got some stiff competition in Logan Webb (2.86 xFIP), an early candidate for NL Cy Young honors. The Snakes have a combined .618 lifetime OPS off Webb in 51 at-bats, with just one home run by Ketel Marte.
The roof will also be closed at Chase Field, so there won’t be the same opportunity for the chaos that we might see in Chicago. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (-135) at WynnBet
