Picks Summary:
- Tigers vs. Royals: Royals ML (-115) at WynnBET
- Tigers vs. Royals: Over 9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mets vs. Cubs: Over 6.5 (-118) at SugarHouse
Wednesday’s game between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals is the source for two of our three daily MLB computer picks.
They say the mid-majors is where the betting value is in college sports. The American League Central is the closest thing we have in Major League Baseball – although to be exact, it might be more of a low major. Think Atlantic Sun Conference more than Atlantic 10.
It’s the least glamorous of the six MLB divisions, but the computers at OddsTrader have their electronic eyes pointed at Wednesday’s otherwise unremarkable AL Central matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 24, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
If the OT computers are correct – and they are – that betting value is with the Royals and the Over. Kansas City is projected to win Wednesday’s game 5.9 runs to 4.2; that might be a full run more than we mere humans would assign the Royals, but it’s still worth a single-unit wager on K.C. at –115, and a slight lean towards Over 9 at the standard –110 juice.
Although hardly anyone pays attention to the AL Central these days – or ever – Kansas City still carries some of that small-market cachet into this contest. Even after the housing crash, Detroit remains the larger TV sports market of the two, ranking No. 14 in the U.S. (at 1.9 million homes) compared to No. 30 for Kansas City (1.0 million).
The Tigers (21-25, plus-6.07 betting units; 22-22-2 Totals) are also the better team on paper, but not by as much as the standings would suggest. Their minus-51 run differential translates to an expected win record of 17-29; Kansas City (15-35, minus-12.94 units; Under 27-22-1) is slightly behind at minus-71 runs for an expected record of 17-33.
Wednesday’s pitching duel should further bridge the gap between the two teams. Zack Greinke (4.20 xFIP) is due up for the Royals, and while he’s down 2.99 units this year on a team record of 3-7 (Under 6-3-1), Greinke has faced much stiffer competition than the Tigers thus far.
As for Detroit, Matthew Boyd (5.26 xFIP) will take the mound Wednesday; it’s almost unfair that Boyd is up 4.54 units after the Tigers won five of his eight appearances (Over 5-3), with only one quality start among them. And yet his 6.21 ERA suggests Boyd has been the unfortunate one thus far, which is corroborated by his career-low 60.9% of runners left stranded.
How Do You Spell Relief?
Relievers are increasingly important when you make your MLB picks these days, and in this case, Kansas City has the superior bullpen, ranking No. 18 on the FanGraphs WAR charts to No. 24 for Detroit.
Boyd has only completed six innings once this year, which is why he only has one quality start to his name; if there’s any good news for Detroit, it’s that they only used one reliever, Tyler Holton, during Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to Kansas City (+125, Under 8.5), while the Royals used four, including top set-up man Aroldis Chapman for the save.
Both teams are equally inept at hitting (No. 26 in WAR for Kansas City, No. 27 for Detroit), so when you add it all up, the Royals are an easy baseball pick on the moneyline. Boyd and those below-average bullpens should help our Over bet, as will the warm temperatures at Kauffman Stadium, but keep that bet size small with these two light-hitting teams in action.
MLB Pick: Royals ML (-115) at WynnBET
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, May 24, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
There’s nothing small-market about our third pick from Wednesday’s MLB odds board. The OT computers have New York (Under 24-22-3) and Chicago (Over 24-22-1) scoring 4.3 runs apiece; that might be one run too many for each side this time, but still a good omen for betting Over 6.5.
Why such a small total? Because Kodai Senga (3.84 xFIP) is taking the hill for the Mets opposite Marcus Stroman (3.64 xFIP). Senga was supposed to pitch Tuesday, but was given an extra day off instead; the Under is 5-3 in his eight starts and 7-3 for Stroman.
All is well and good, but Senga hasn’t seen a total lower than 7.5 runs since coming over from the Japanese League. Make it another slight lean, though, given the 10-15 mph winds expected to blow toward home plate this Wednesday. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 6.5 (-118) at SugarHouse
