MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Picks Summary
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110)
- Twins ML (+110)
- Giants ML (-135)
It’s Memorial Day, and we don’t even have a full slate of games in the MLB. Still, there’s plenty of value on the board. We’re rocking with an underdog play and two other plays suggested by our AI Models.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, May 29, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
The Arizona Diamondbacks are heavy favorites for tonight, but there’s a good reason. Our AI model projects the Diamondbacks earning a three-run win today. The model believes the Diamondbacks will score seven to Colorado’s 3.6 runs.
Karl Kauffmann will take the mound for Colorado. That’s ultimately why the Diamondbacks are heavy favorites. Kauffmann has had a 6.29 xFIP over the last 30 days with just 14.3% of strikeouts and 11.9% of walks.
He’s also got a BABIP of .414 and has allowed 56.7% of hard contact in the last 30 days. He’s been fine against lefties, but righties have hit a .557 wOBA and ISO of .263 in their last 25 plate appearances against Kauffmann. Arizona’s projected lineup has hit a .190 ISO and woBA of .323 against righties over the last 30 days
Little Power From Colorado
The Rockies will face Ryne Nelson. He’s not incredibly better than Kauffmann. However, the Rockies are hitting a .147 ISO against righties over the last 30 days. They’ve only got three guys in the lineup hitting an ISO of at least .186 against righties over the last month.
There’s not enough offense in this Arizona lineup. The AI model predicts that the Rockies will struggle to score runs today.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Monday, May 29, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Our AI Model suggests that the Minnesota Twins have the edge, on the road, as an underdog. The model predicts that the Twins will score four runs while the Astros will score only 3.7 in today’s ball game. The edge is in favor of the Twins.
The Astros will send out J.P. France tonight. He’s got a 4.84 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out just 20.2% of batters. He’s also poorly struggled against righties, giving up a .446 wOBA and ISO of .383 against his last 50 righties faced.
Meanwhile, the Twins are hitting a .222 ISO and wOBA of .335 collectively as a projected lineup against righties and have some quality bats in the lineup that can get to France. On the other hand, the Astros are only hitting a .134 ISO and wOBA of .321 in the last 30 days against righties. They’ll face Minnesota ace Sonny Gray, who has a 3.27 xFIP with 29.1% of strikeouts.
The Astros have seven batters striking out at least 20% against righties over the last month, and they’ve only got two batters hitting a wOBA above .335 against righties. The Twins are the play here.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, May 29, 2023 – 05:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI model suggests that the Giants will win a close game today. The Giants are projected to score 4.1 runs, while the Pirates are expected to score 3.7 runs.
It’ll be Rich Hill on the mound for the Pirates. He’s got a 3.71 xFIP with 26.1% of strikeouts over the last month, but it’s going to be hard to sustain this. He’s giving up 32.9% of line drives and has induced only 34.2% of ground balls.
San Francisco has hit a .219 ISO and wOBA of .355 against lefties over the last month with their projected lineup. They’ve also smacked 27.8% of line drives. On the other hand, Anthony DeSclafani will man the mound for the Giants. He’s got a 4.75 xFIP over the last 30 days, but he’s taking on a lineup that has been so weak lately. Against righties, the Pirates have hit a .118 ISO and wOBA of .288 with nearly 26% of strikeouts.
The Giants certainly have the edge in today’s game, with their lineup performing at a much better rate than the Pirates.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
