The AI Model has been hitting fantastically throughout the MLB season. Let’s hope it can continue its momentum into tonight’s slate. Here are three games I agree with the OddsTrader computers.
Picks Summary
- Astros -1.5 (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Orioles (-115) at Bet365
- Braves (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Our AI Model believes the Astros will earn a 5.2-2.8 win over the Yankees tonight. The Astros are in the middle of a pennant race. The Yankees have one more month until they’ll go home.
The Yankees haven’t been happy with the return of Carlos Rodon. They signed him to a massive free-agent deal. Then he got hurt and is pitching poorly after returning from that injury.
Rodon has allowed a .265 ISO and wOBA of .382 to his last 56 batters. He’s also given up a .243 ISO and wOBA of .359 to 165 batters this season.
He rarely earns ground balls and has allowed over 30% of fly balls. Rodon is capable of getting strikeouts against righties right now. But he’s also allowed 44.4% of hard contact in the last month.
He’ll take on an Astros team that has hit a .277 ISO and wOBA of .442 against lefties over the last month. There’s no single player with a below-average ISO and below-average wOBA in that Houston lineup against Rodon.
Meanwhile, Justin Verlander will get the call for the Astros. The veteran has struck out nearly 23% of batters and has limited teams to a .130 ISO and wOBA of .310. New York’s lineup will likely have a lot of younger players and prospects.
It won’t typically work out when prospects face a guy like Justin Verlander.
Take the Astros on the runline.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our AI Model believes the Orioles will earn a close win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, 5.5-4.7. That margin is large enough to back the Orioles on the moneyline at -115 betting odds.
Baltimore will send out Cole Irvin, a left-handed pitcher, holding teams to a .139 ISO and wOBA of .261 over the last month. Irvin is your average pitcher, but he’s been above average over the last month. He’s struck out over 24% of batters and has kept walks to 3.8% in the last 30 days.
The lefty will face a Diamondbacks lineup that has hit a .149 ISO and wOBA of .295 in the last month. That’s not very good.
On the other hand, Arizona will pitch Zach Davies. He’s been awful against righties, giving up a .455 ISO and wOBA of .500 to his last 11 righties. This season,. He’s given up a .200 ISO and wOBA of .353 to 124 righties.
Davies doesn’t have to worry about too many great righties in the Baltimore lineup. However, lefties have still hit a .154 ISO and wOBA of .360 against him this year. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander are two bats to look out for.
The Orioles have more going for them right now. Take them at -115. The AI Model knows.
MLB Pick: Orioles (-115) at Bet365
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model suggests the Braves will escape the Dodgers on the road, 4.5-3.7. The Under has little value, but the Braves at -125 makes the most sense here.
The Braves-Dodgers matchup is always an exciting one.
The Braves will pitch Max Fried. He’s a lefty, holding teams to a .126 ISO over the last 30 days. Fried has earned 23.9% of strikeouts in the last month and has limited walks to 4.3%.
It’s hard to hit fly balls against Fried. It’s also easy to hit ground balls against Fried. However, the Dodgers have hit a .258 ISO and wOBA of .386 against lefties over the last month. The projected lineup has also struck out just 14.4% of the time. Fried will have a lot on his plate.
But so will Los Angeles’ starter, Julio Urias. Urias has allowed a .188 ISO to his last 118 batters. Righties have also hit a .207 ISO and wOBA of .328. He’s been worse than Fried over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, the Braves have hit a .276 ISO and wOBA of .441 against lefties in their last month using the projected lineup.
Both lineups are terrific. But Fried is the much better pitcher right now. I’ll back the Braves on the moneyline.
MLB Pick: Braves (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
