Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games interest me: Rangers vs. Angels, Astros vs. Mariners, and Padres vs. Giants.
For your best bets, I recommend investing in Rangers-Angels “Over,” Astros ML, and Padres ML. These picks are supported by OddsTrader’s computers and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, September 27, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Computer Pick
Our computers indicate that this game will be high-scoring. You should agree and play the “Over.”
Dane Dunning (Texas Rangers)
Dane Dunning starts for Texas tonight. Dunning enters today’s game in bad form, as he’s consistently struggling to perform well.
He has yielded an ERA of 4.50 in four of his last five starts. Moreover, he yielded an ERA of 6.75 or worse in three of those starts.
In his one strong start, he benefited from being a left-handed pitcher because he faced a Cleveland team that, as measured by slugging rate, had the worst lineup against left-handed pitchers.
Against any opponent with a pulse, Dunning is struggling to minimize hard contact. Opponents are regularly crushing his pitches as his stuff is not good enough to survive the bad location in which, as heat maps illustrate, he frequently places them.
He often leaves his pitches in the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Dunning vs. Angels Batters
Primarily, Dunning throws a sinker, slider, cutter, and changeup. These four pitchers combined make up over 90 percent of his arsenal.
Tonight, Dunning’s outlook is negative because, unlike Cleveland, the Angels are reliable against left-handed pitching.
They own one of baseball’s better slugging rates against lefty pitchers. Specifically, they match up well against Dunning in view of the pitches that he throws. Ranking seventh, their slugging rate is .438 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Because they match up well against Dunning, they were able to figure him out in their last meeting. On June 12, they scored three earned runs in five innings against him, which amounts to a 5.40 ERA.
Griffin Canning (Los Angeles Angels)
Griffin Canning starts for the Angels tonight.
Canning will perform at least as poorly as Dunning. His batch of recent starts does not recommend him in terms of form.
Texas’ recent history against him paints a clear picture in the Rangers’ favor. On August 14, Canning allowed four earned runs in 3.2 innings against them.
This outing is consistent with his career-long struggles: in four career starts against Texas, Canning’s ERA is 6.38
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-125) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, September 27, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Computer Pick
Our computers project an Astros victory. You should, accordingly, wager on the Astros.
Framber Valdez (Houston Astros)
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros tonight. Valdez’s last start creates a misleadingly negative impression of him.
While he did allow a lot of runs, he was unfortunate to do so, because he was the victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His 2.32 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
Having yielded an FIP of 2.32 or better in both of his last two starts, he enters tonight’s game in strong form.
Bounce-Back Spot
In contradiction to inspiring pessimism, Valdez’s last start – in which he allowed six earned runs – should inspire confidence in him because a great trend applies.
Valdez had allowed six earned runs in three previous starts. In each of the starts that directly followed such an awful outing, he allowed three earned runs or fewer in at least seven innings.
He shut out his opponent in two of those three starts. This trend solidifies the expectation to see Valdez at his best today.
Valdez vs. Mariners Lineup
Even regardless of the favorable spot in which Valdez finds himself tonight, one should expect the Mariners to struggle tonight because they match up poorly against Valdez.
He throws a sinker, curveball, changeup, and cutter. Seattle slugs .388 against these pitches from lefties.
Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners)
Seattle starts Bryce Miller tonight. Miller is not a hard pitcher to figure out, largely because he relies so extensively on a single pitch – he throws his fastball about 60 percent of the time.
He is likelier to struggle, therefore, upon facing the same lineup three times in the season.
For example, he yielded a 4.50 ERA in his third start against a much weaker Oakland lineup after dominating the A’s in their first two meetings.
Houston gets to see Miller a third time tonight and will score more than they need to in order to get Valdez the win.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-125) at Bet365
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, September 27, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Computer Pick
Our computers project San Diego to win tonight. Accordingly, you should wager on the Padres ML.
Matt Waldron (San Diego Padres)
San Diego starts Matt Waldron tonight.
Waldron enters tonight’s game in strong form. He’s allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts. His stuff has been good, as evident in his high strikeout rate.
Moreover, his effective command is helping him minimize hard contact.
Giants’ Struggling Offense
Whereas Waldron is enjoying strong form, San Francisco’s offense is struggling to be productive.
Most recently, the Giants have scored a combined total of four runs in their last four games even though one of those games ventured into extra innings.
More extensively, San Francisco has mustered two runs or fewer in six of their last seven games.
The Matchup
San Francisco’s offensive outlook is especially negative tonight because the pitches that Waldron throws have contributed especially to their ongoing woes.
Waldron throws a knuckleball, sinker, fastball, slider, and cutter.
He features each of these pitches extensively, as he throws every single one at least twelve percent of the time while relying no more than 27 percent of the time on any one of them.
Since September 20, the Giants slug .339 against Waldron’s pitches from righties.
Sean Manaea (San Francisco Giants)
San Francisco starts Sean Manaea tonight. Manaea is struggling to achieve the game-by-game consistency that Waldron is showing, but Manaea’s outlook is particularly negative tonight because the Padres love facing him. This year, he’s started twice against them.
He allowed four earned runs in two innings in the first start.
While he allowed fewer runs in the rematch, he struggled to induce soft contact and yielded a 6.56 FIP, which shows how poorly he actually performed.
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-110)Â at Bet365
