This could be the final time we’ll get multiple MLB games on the slate until next season. The Mets and Dodgers will play in Game 5 of the NLCS tonight. The Dodgers lead the series 3-1 and could clinch a World Series berth with a win.
Meanwhile, the Yankees and Guardians are slated to play in the ALCS Game 4. The Yankees took a commanding 2-0 lead at home in the series, but the Guardians stormed back with a walk-off win in Game 3 to keep their postseason hopes alive.
We’ve asked our computers for their thoughts on both games. Here’s what they think about today’s matchups.
Picks Summary
- Dodgers ML (-135)
- Yankees ML (-120)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Friday, October 18, 2024 – 05:08 PM ET at Citi Field
Our AI Model believes the Dodgers will escape the Mets, 4.4-4.1, in Game 5. This would give the Dodgers a series win and a chance to play in the World Series. You can get the Dodgers at -135 MLB odds at Bet365, an outstanding value per the AI Model.
Will Jack Flaherty Dominate The Mets Again?
The Dodgers will run it back with Jack Flaherty in Game 5 against the Mets. Flaherty dominated the Mets in Game 1, adding seven innings with six strikeouts and no runs on two hits.
While Flaherty has still struggled against righties over the last month, the Mets’ lineup has only hit a .147 ISO and wOBA of .289 against righties in that same time. The projected lineup has not performed well enough to win games, and now the Mets are paying the price.
What’s New York’s Plan?
In Game 1 of the NLCS, the Mets went with Kodei Senga to start things off. He couldn’t find command and gave the Dodgers Game 1 quickly.
This time around, the Mets will start David Peterson in Game 5 and then potentially give Kodei Senga the ball later in the game.
As we saw against Jose Quintana, the Dodgers are usually good at hitting lefties. They’ve struggled more against righties but are patient enough to force starters to throw strikes.
Maybe the Peterson-Senga duo will keep the Dodgers off-balanced. But it’s doubtful with how the Dodgers have been hitting the ball.
MLB Computer Pick
The Mets look completely gassed at this point. I’m with the AI Model. Let’s side with the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-135) at Bet365
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, October 18, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Progressive Field
The AI Model believes the Yankees will add a 5.3-3 win over the Guardians on the road. This would give the Yankees a 3-1 lead in the ALCS. More importantly, the Yankees are just -120 on the moneyline via Bet365 but are projected to win by 2.3 runs. This is the best play on the MLB slate tonight.
Can Cleveland’s Lineup Sustain Success?
The Cleveland Guardians found some offense last night and escaped the Yankees with a 7-5 victory.
However, the Guardians haven’t been very consistent offensively this season. Instead, they have hit a .140 ISO and wOBA of .282 with their projected lineup against righties in the last 30 days.
That typically won’t get the job done.
Only Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez have shown legitimate pop over the last 30 days against righties. Now they’ll take on Luis Gil, who has held 637 batters to a .290 wOBA this season. He’s been a bit worse over the last month but has still recorded nearly 31% of strikeouts against righties during the previous 30 days.
This won’t be the easiest matchup for the Guardians, even at home.
Trusting Aaron Judge & The Righties
The Yankees have a lot of power from their righties. The righties have hit a .210 ISO and wOBA of .322 against other righties over the last month.
I can roll with that.
The Yankees will face Gavin Williams of the Guardians, who has allowed a .176 ISO and wOBA of .351 to righties as a righty. Williams has also struck out just 22.2% of righties and has allowed 50% of hard contact to all 332 batters faced this season.
MLB Computer Pick
The Yankees have the better matchup heading into tonight’s ALCS Game 4. Let’s rock with the AI Model and take the Yankees at -120.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-120) at Bet365
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