The top sportsbooks have released a lot of player props for bettors to wager on.
Some are extremely popular. Let’s examine whether we should ride with the masses or go against them.
Picks Summary
- Dallas Goedert Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)Â
- Dallas Goedert Under 4.5 Catches (+100)Â
- Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Saquon Barkley Over 110.5 Rushing Yards (-110)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Everybody Loves Dallas Goedert
The love for Dallas Goedert is immense: the so-called experts are writing about him and talking about him on television.
His receiving yards “over” and his reception total “over” have been two of the most heavily bet on wagers.
Here’s the rationale for his popularity: the Chiefs are known to be the worst team at covering tight ends. In the regular season, they allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends.
Should We Follow The Masses?
Sometimes the masses have it right. But in this case, they don’t.
The best argument for the Goedert receiving yards “over” is that he had big games against Tampa Bay and New Orleans defenses that, like Kansas City, struggle to cover tight ends. But this is a bad argument because star wide receiver A.J. Brown was absent in those games.
In November, Goedert faced a Rams team that this season allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. He accumulated all of 19 receiving yards in that game because Brown was playing. Goedert had a good game against the Rams in the playoffs, but Brown was nursing a knee injury.
We can also look at this from the point of view of catches. He caught a lot of passes in those Bucs and Saints games but mustered all of four receptions against the Rams with Brown healthy but second-best wide receiver DeVonta Smith absent. He cannot be expected to reach five catches in the Super Bowl with Brown and also Smith healthy.
The point is that, particularly when Brown is healthy, Goedert is not going to get enough attention from his quarterback. We should, therefore, go against the masses here.
NFL Pick: Dallas Goedert Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Dallas Goedert Under 4.5 Catches (+100) at Bet365
Xavier Worthy Rush Yards
Kansas City’s Xavier Worthy is a wide receiver, but he sometimes gets deployed as a running back. In the postseason, he has run the ball three times for a total of eight yards.
This might not seem impressive, but the betting masses still love the “over” on his rushing yards. Money is pouring on it.
Should We Go With the Crowd?
Worthy would most likely get his rushing yards via a jet sweep. In this game, there is too much that can go wrong for the Chiefs to attempt or succeed with a jet sweep.
Their offensive line has a major deficiency at left guard, where Mike Caliendo is starting because their initial starting left guard needed to move to left tackle. Caliendo is awful at preventing pressure from opposing defensive lines, and Philly’s defensive line is loaded with the likes of All-Pro selection Jalen Carter. The Eagles will be able to blow up the interior of Kansas City’s offensive line.
For a jet sweep to work, wide receivers also need to be able to tackle well. But Philadelphia has defensive backs who are solid at tackling in space. Defensive Rookie of the Year Cooper DeJean made a highlight with his big hit on physical monster Derrick Henry, but C.J. Gardner-Johnson has also proven to be an effective tackler against ball-carriers.
When the Eagles played Green Bay in the playoffs, the Packers did not attempt a run with their explosive wide receiver, Jayden Reed.
I wouldn’t hold out hope for Worthy, so let’s go against the masses here.
NFL Pick: Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown
I am seeing a lot of love for the Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown prop. A lot of people are willing to wager that Philadelphia’s quarterback will score a rushing touchdown.
Should We Join The Masses?
Hurts would likely score a rushing touchdown via the famous tush push. The tush push is hard to stop. If anyone can stop it, though, it’s six-time All-Pro selection Chris Jones, Kansas City’s elite defensive tackle.
Besides, the probability feels too low that the Eagles land at Kansas City’s one- or two-yard line. If they don’t, then they would be too far away from the end zone for them to score via the tush push.
I would not join the masses here. There are better props to invest your money in.
Saquon Barkley Hype
Bettors love Saquon Barkley. He is the NFL’s best running back this year, and it’s not close.
In the regular season, he ran for 2,005 yards to lead the league in rushing. So far this postseason, he has amassed 442 rushing yards in three games.
He gets to face a Chiefs defense that just conceded, in the postseason, 4.9 YPC to Houston running back Joe Mixon and 6.5 YPC to Buffalo running back James Cook.
Barkley just needs to run the ball enough. This being the last game of the year, Philadelphia’s coaching staff won’t conserve him like it did in their win over the Commanders.
Barkley is comfortable carrying the ball well over 20 times. With this volume, he’ll have no problem hitting the “over” on his rush yards. Therefore, let’s join the masses here.
NFL Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 110.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
