With the College Basketball National Championship scheduled for tonight, there are only two games in the NBA. I asked the AI Model for its best bet on each game and shared them below.
Picks Summary
- Kings +7 (-110)
- 76ers-Heat Over 214.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
The AI Model predicts the Kings will lose to the Pistons, 117-112. However, the Kings are +7 against the spread and would still cover in this scenario. Consider the Kings against the spread tonight.
The Kings Can Get To The Foul Line A Lot
The Sacramento Kings have added 116.3 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s good for 11th in the nation. Part of the reason they’ve been able to do this is the foul line.
The Pistons rank 27th in defensive free throw rate and should give plenty of foul shots to the Kings. Free points with the time stopped will always help.
In addition, the Kings have limited turnovers to 13.4% and shot an effective field goal percentage close to 55%.
The Kings might not see success on the offensive glass, but if shots fall and they’re aggressive enough, that won’t destroy the Kings’ chances at sticking around in this game.
The Kings Must Give All Energy On The Defensive Glass
The Kings have allowed a 56.1% effective field goal percentage on defense, which is one of the worst rates in the NBA. They’ve also allowed 116.4 points per 100 possessions, which is a bottom ten in the NBA.
Still, the Kings have allowed only 25.7% of offensive rebounds. That’s the second-best in the NBA. The Pistons are still a below-average shooting team, hitting an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. If the Pistons shoot around their average, the second chances won’t come as often against the Kings.
Additionally, the Pistons have listed Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris as questionable for tonight’s game. It’s unclear if either of those two will play. Duren is dealing with a leg injury and Harris has a heel problem.
Ultimately, it’s likely at least one of two sit out. Harris is the more likely candidate to sit out.
With many question marks for the Pistons and a good matchup for the Kings, let’s back the Kings at +7.
NBA Pick: Kings +7 (-110) at Bet365
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
The AI Model suggests the Heat and 76ers will combine for 216 points tonight. Meanwhile, the total is only at 214.5 via Bet365. The Over makes the most sense in this game.
The Heat Are Looking For The Season Sweep
The Miami Heat have already won three straight games against the Philadelphia 76ers this season. Ultimately, the Heat took advantage of Philadelphia’s poor defense.
Miami has scored at least 106 points in every game this season. On March 29, the Heat won 118-95 over the 76ers.
For one, the 76ers have conceded the season, shutting down their three best players for the rest of the season. In addition, the 76ers rank 26th in points per 100 possessions on defense and dead last in effective field goal percentage.
The 76ers have also allowed 31.4% of offensive rebounds. Miami isn’t great on the offensive glass but could get more opportunities. In addition, the Heat have held turnovers to 14%, so it’s likely the Heat can get a high amount of shots up, giving them more chances at second opportunities.
The 76ers Must Keep Turnovers Down, Too
The Miami Heat are expected to be the offensive leaders in this game, but the 76ers can also contribute.
Philadelphia has given up just 14% of turnovers and should still take advantage of Miami’s defensive effective field goal percentage of 54.7%. The Heat are below average in turnovers forced and effective field goal percentage, which are areas where the 76ers can find success.
Consider the Over 214.5 at -110 NBA odds in this game.
NBA Pick: Over 214.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
