After two nights of the NBA Cup, we’re back to regularly scheduled programming for the next two nights. While there are only three games on tonight’s slate, all three games are regular-season matchups. That should help bring back some normalcy to the NBA.
That said, here’s what the AI Model thinks about each game with a pick for all three games on tonight’s slate.
Picks Summary
- Celtics -12.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Heat -10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Pelicans +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, December 12, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at TD Garden
The AI Model believes the Celtics will earn a 120-107 win over the Pistons tonight. That’s an expected 13-point win. However, the Celtics are -12.5 against the spread. Boston has the value tonight.
How Will The Pistons Score Consistently?
The Detroit Pistons aren’t a terrible offense. But they’re still below average. The Pistons have scored 111.8 points per 100 possessions and have turned the ball over 16.8% of the time.
They’ve also added a low free throw rate and will take on a Boston defense that ranks first in the NBA in defensive free throw rate. It’s hard to imagine the Pistons scoring at a consistent rate.
The Top Offense Should Shine
The Boston Celtics are the top offense in the NBA. They’ve scored 123.2 points per 100 possessions and have added a 57.1% effective field goal percentage.
Beyond that, they’ve turned the ball over just 11.5% of the time, leading the NBA. With the Pistons averaging only 13.5% of turnovers, it’s highly unlikely they will add a bunch of turnovers.
Let’s roll with the Celtics at -12.5 and -110 NBA odds.
NBA Pick: Celtics -12.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, December 12, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center
Our AI Model believes the Heat will knock off the Raptors, 118-107. That’s an 11-point win. However, Caesars is carrying the Heat at -10.5. Another favorite against the spread is the play.
The Heat Will Hold On To Possessions
The Miami Heat are very good at limiting turnovers. They’ve turned the ball over just 12.8% of the time, which ranks 4th in the NBA.
Additionally, they’re facing a Raptors defense that has added only 13.4% of turnovers. It’s highly unlikely the Raptors add a high rate of turnovers in this game. That means more shots for the Heat and more opportunities for points.
Beyond that, though, the Raptors are dead last regarding the defensive free-throw rate. With the time stopped, the Heat will likely get to the foul line a lot, helping boost the score and margin.
Toronto Does The Opposite!
I just talked about how good the Heat are at limiting turnovers and getting to the foul line. But the Raptors are the opposite.
Toronto ranks 25th in turnovers on offense and 21st in free throw rate. The Heat have delivered 15.3% of turnovers on defense and have limited teams to a 17 free throw rate.
If the Heat dominate those two areas, they’ll win by double-digits, especially with the Raptors playing without Scottie Barnes.
Grab the Heat at -10.5.
NBA Pick: Heat -10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, December 12, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Our AI Model likes the Pelicans only to lose 119-113 at home. That’s a six-point loss, but the sportsbooks have the Pelicans at +6.5. They’d win against the spread in that outcome.
The Pelicans Can Limit The Kings At The Foul Line!
The New Orleans Pelicans’ defense hasn’t been crisp this season. Ultimately, they’ve dealt with many injuries and have had games where none of their starters were healthy enough to play.
They’ll be without Brandon Ingram and Jose Alvarado in this game, along with Zion Williamson and others. It hasn’t been an easy year.
That said, the Kings rank 7th in getting to the foul line this season. That could be way less against a Pelicans defense that ranks second in the NBA in defensive free throw rate. Keeping the Kings off the foul line will be critical.
Sacramento Isn’t Great Defensively, Either!
The Sacramento Kings have given up 113.8 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s slightly above the average. However, the Kings have allowed a 54.9% effective field goal percentage and a free throw rate of 20.5. Those aren’t quality numbers.
While the Pelicans have an excuse for poor defense, the Kings don’t. They’ve been healthy.
Ultimately, the Pelicans should get better shots in this game and add more offensive rebounds, as they’ve earned 29.8% this season.
I’ll take the Pelicans to cover the spread at home.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
