With only three NBA games on the menu tonight, I asked the AI Model for its thoughts and picks for each game. Here’s what it told me.
Picks Summary
- Raptors +8 (-110) at Bet365
- Kings ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Nuggets-Pelicans Over 232 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Rockets vs. Toronto Raptors
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
The AI Model believes the Rockets will add a 115-109 victory on the road over the Raptors. However, the Raptors are eight-point underdogs. If the Raptors lose by six, they’d cover against the spread.
Shooting Against The Raptors Won’t Be Easy!
The Houston Rockets are great at keeping turnovers down. They’re also great at dominating the offensive glass for second-chance points.
That said, the Rockets have still shot just an effective field goal percentage of 50.7%. That ranks 29th in the NBA and isn’t good.
On the other hand, the Raptors have limited opponents to a 53.8% effective field goal percentage. That’s ninth in the NBA. Ultimately, the Raptors should be able to force poor shots. That should help them stick around in this game.
Toronto Is Just As Good On the Offensive Glass
The Toronto Raptors will struggle to shoot, just like the Raptors. Yet, Toronto has added 32.3% of offensive rebounds, which ranks second in the NBA.
The Raptors might not add as many offensive rebounds and second chances as the Rockets, but they’ll come close.
As long as Toronto’s defense is up to par, the Raptors should be able to cover against the spread tonight.
NBA Pick: Raptors +8 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
Our AI Model thinks the Kings will survive at home and beat the Pacers 119-117. You can find the Kings at -135 via our top sportsbooks. That’s the play.
Give The Kings Credit!
The Sacramento Kings have held opponents to 113.5 points per 100 possessions. This isn’t an elite number, but it’s a slightly above-average number.
The Kings aren’t forcing the most difficult shots. Yet, they’ve forced 15.3% of turnovers and have limited teams to 26.5% of offensive rebounds. That’ll be crucial, especially since the Pacers have earned just 22.5% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
The Pacers will likely not be at their best offensively on the road. When shots are missed, they will not clean up the glass.
Easier Shots For The Kings!
The Kings have scored more points per 100 possessions than the Pacers this season. Sacramento has added 115.6 points per 100 possessions and has an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%.
The Kings have limited turnovers to 13.4% and have a solid free-throw rate of 20.6.
This is all crucial since the Pacers rank 25th in defensive effective field goal percentage and 25th in defensive free-throw rate. Indiana is also 23rd in defensive rebounding.
The Kings will take advantage. Roll with the Kings at -135 NBA odds on the moneyline. Thank the AI Model when this hits!
NBA Pick: Kings ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
The AI Model suggests the Nuggets and Pelicans will add 234 points in tonight’s game. Yet, the total is stuck at 232 via Bet365. Clearly, the model loves the Over.
Denver Can Get Whatever It Wants
The Denver Nuggets have the sixth-best offense in the NBA. They score 117.6 points per 100 possessions and shoot an effective field goal percentage of 56.6%.
Meanwhile, they’ll take on a Pelicans team that has allowed 119.6 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans have also allowed a 56.9% effective field goal percentage.
Both of those numbers rank 29th in the NBA. Additionally, the Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rebounding. The Nuggets have added 28.7% of offensive rebounds and rank 10th in that category.
Denver should be able to take advantage of the glass and get good looks from the floor throughout the game.
New Orleans Will Earn Second Chances Too!
The Pelicans’ offense is not nearly as efficient as the Nuggets’. However, they can add some points through the offensive glass.
The Pelicans have earned 30.1% of offensive rebounds and will face a Nuggets team allowing 28.3%.
Don’t expect the Pelicans to outshoot or even outscore the Nuggets. But they should get enough volume to help the over hit. Let’s ride with the Over 232.
NBA Pick: Over 232 (-110) at Bet365
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