All teams that didn’t get to play on Christmas Day will play tonight. With nine games on the schedule, there’s plenty of value on the NBA betting board. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets. Here’s what it came up with. Don’t miss out on any action at the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Raptors +11.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Pistons-Kings Over 227.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Trail Blazers ML (-125) at Bet365
Toronto Raptors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, December 26, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at FedEx Forum
The AI Model believes Memphis will only defeat the Raptors by 11 points. However, the Raptors are +11.5 via Bet365. An 11-point loss would help the Raptors at least cover the spread.
Toronto Can Stick Around!
The Toronto Raptors are 11.5-point underdogs. Yet, the Raptors have added 31.6% of offensive rebounds and should see the foul line more times than not. After all, the Grizzlies have allowed a 21.3 defensive free throw rate, which is 24th in the NBA.
Don’t expect the Raptors to shoot at a high percentage. The Raptors will also turn the ball over at a higher rate. But the offensive rebounds, second chances, and foul shots should make up for it.
The Raptors’ Defense Gets Slept On
While the Raptors foul frequently and allow many offensive rebounds, they also keep teams off the field.
Opponents have shot a 54.1% effective field goal percentage against the Raptors this season. That’s an above-average defensive rate.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%, which is 9th in the NBA. Toronto can hold the Grizzlies from the field, and if the Raptors do that, they’ll survive and at least cover the double-digit spread. I’ll trust the AI Model and back the Raptors at +11.5.
NBA Pick: Raptors +11.5 (-110) at Bet365
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, December 26, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
Our AI Model expects the Kings and Pistons to add 228 points combined in tonight’s game. Meanwhile, Bet365 is carrying a 227.5 number. Overall, 228 would be enough to hit the Over.
Detroit Will Get Good Looks
The Detroit Pistons have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.5%. That ranks 11th in the NBA and is an above-average number. Meanwhile, the Kings have allowed a 55% effective field goal percentage on defense, which ranks 17th.
The Pistons will get a fair amount of good looks and have earned 28.5% of offensive rebounds. They’ll be fine in this matchup.
The Kings Will Lead the Way
While the Pistons will get good looks, Sacramento can limit turnovers and get to the foul line more.
The Kings have scored 115 points per 100 possessions and will face a Detroit defense that has allowed 115.5 points per 100 possessions. The Kings could perform slightly above their average, already a top-10 number in the NBA this season. Both offenses should have solid nights. Take the Over 227.5.
NBA Pick: Over 227.5 (-110) at Bet365
Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, December 26, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model suggests the Portland Trail Blazers will escape with a 115-114 win over the Utah Jazz. You can find the Trail Blazers at -125 on the moneyline via Bet365.
Too Many Turnovers For Utah!
The Utah Jazz have only scored 111 points per 100 possessions this season. That ranks 25th in the NBA. In addition, the Jazz have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54% and have turned the ball over nearly 19% of the time.
While the Jazz are typically good at earning offensive rebounds and foul shots, it won’t happen often
with a super high turnover rate.
Portland Will Survive!
The Portland Trail Blazers aren’t much better offensively. In fact, Portland has scored just 107.6 points per 100 possessions and has shot an effective field goal percentage of 50.8%.
That said. Utah has forced only 11.9% of turnovers per game. It’s likely Portland will at least take more shots. Even misses won’t be terrible since Portland has gained 31% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
With fewer turnovers and more second chances, Portland should survive at home. Take the Blazers on the moneyline at -125. I’m with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers ML (-125) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
