It’s a small slate, but we have six NBA games to bet on tonight. I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets. Here are its recommendations.
Picks Summary
- Grizzlies +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Heat-Rockets Over 216.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Spurs +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Paycorn Center
The AI Model believes the Grizzlies will only lose to the Thunder, 119-113. That’s a six-point deficit, but the Grizzlies are at +6.5 at Caesars. That’s the way to go.
Memphis Has A Lot of Potential!
The Memphis Grizzlies have scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve become one of the best offenses in the NBA.
While they’re facing a Thunder team that ranks first in the NBA in points per 100 possessions on defense, the Grizzlies still have a lot of potential.
First, the Grizzlies have earned 32.2% of offensive rebounds and will face a Thunder team that has allowed 30.5%. Second, the Thunder have allowed a free-throw rate of 21.6, which is 26th in the NBA.
The Grizzlies have earned a 20 free throw rate and should find themselves at the foul line at a high rate.
Ultimately, Memphis will turn the ball over a lot against the Thunder. However, if Memphis can limit the turnovers slightly, they’ll be in a prime position to pull off an upset.
Can The Thunder Take Advantage of Weaknesses?
The Oklahoma City Thunder have shot a 54.2% effective field goal percentage. That won’t cut it against a Memphis squad that has held opponents to a 51.1% effective field goal percentage.
The best way to beat Memphis is to get to the foul line and earn offensive rebounds. However, Memphis has added just 25.7% of offensive rebounds and ranks 27th in free-throw rate.
The Thunder won’t take advantage, per the analytics. Take the Grizzlies at +6.5.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Our AI Model thinks the Miami Heat and Houston Rockets will combine for 218 points. However, you can find the total at 216.5 via Bet365. Take the Over.
Miami Can Score Enough
The Miami Heat are taking on a really good Rockets defense. Ultimately, Houston has held teams to 106.6 points per 100 possessions, which is good for second in the NBA defensively.
That said, Miami is very good at limiting turnovers and has added a 21.2 free-throw rate. With more shot attempts and more aggressiveness, the Heat will take many shots and earn many opportunities, which will help them score a reliable number of points.
Houston Dominates The Offensive Glass
The Houston Rockets don’t shoot very well. After all, the Rockets have added an effective field goal percentage of 51%, which is 29th in the NBA.
Still, like the Heat, they’ll have opportunities. This season, the Rockets have gained 34.4% of offensive rebounds per game. The more second chances, the more chances at extra points.
I’ll back the over 216.5. Both defenses are good, but the total is also just 216.5. According to the AI model, that’s a bit too low.
NBA Pick: Over 216.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Target Center
The AI Model suggests the Spurs will only lose to the Timberwolves by five points. Yet, the Spurs are +6.5 at Caesars. That’s the way to go.
San Antonio Is Playing Better Ball!
The Spurs are 16-15 on the season. However, San Antonio is coming off a win against the Nets and almost stunned the Knicks on Christmas Day before that Nets game.
The Spurs fell short but have still won four of their last five games.
San Antonio won’t have the easiest looks against the Timberwolves. They’ll need to find their way to the foul line and be aggressive like they’ve done most of this season.
The Timberwolves have an elite defense, but the best way to beat them is to gain offensive rebounds. San Antonio will have to do that tonight.
Minnesota’s Offense Is No Better!
The Minnesota Timberwolves have scored just 111.6 points per 100 possessions. The offense is below average in all major categories but effective field goal percentage.
However, the Spurs have held teams to a 53.7% effective field goal percentage, implying Minnesota could ultimately be below average in that category tonight, too.
Rock with the Spurs at +6.5.
NBA Pick: Spurs +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
