Both favorites won yesterday’s NBA Play-In Matchups. The same thing can happen tonight, according to our AI Model. That said, I surfed through each game and found the best +EV bet for each game. Those bets have been shared below, so check them out before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Duncan Robinson Over 8.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Klay Thompson Under 14.5 Points (-129) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at United Center
The AI Model suggests Duncan Robinson will score 15.5 points for the Heat tonight. However, his total is currently only 8.5. The over has a lot of value.
Duncan Robinson Could Be In For a Big Game!
Duncan Robinson of the Miami Heat has scored at least nine points in 57% of games this season. He’s also added at least nine points in three of his last five games and five of his last ten games. In addition, Robinson has earned at least nine points in nine of his last 15 head-to-head games against the Bulls this season.
Ultimately, the Bulls are nothing special defensively. The team ranks 23rd in points allowed to small forwards this season. In addition, the Bulls rank 22nd in three-point attempts. That’s good news since Robinson has attempted 6.2 threes per game over the last ten games. Beyond that, Robinson has nailed 42.2% from downtown in that ten-game span. He’s also shot 44.9% from the field.
After all, the Bulls rank 30th in field goals attempted from small forwards. They’re also 23rd in field goals made from small forwards.
Furthermore, the Bulls rank 21st in free throws made. Robinson doesn’t get to the foul line at a high rate, but there’s a solid chance he finds his way to the foul line once or twice in this game. He’s added more than a bucket per game inside the paint, so he’s more than just a three-point shooter.
The Pick
We’ll back Duncan Robinson to earn at least nine points in tonight’s game. He’s a veteran shooter who has experience hitting big shots in these types of matchups. I’ll ride with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 8.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT Golden 1 Center
The AI Model thinks Klay Thompson will add just 8.7 points for the Mavericks. Yet, his consensus line is stuck at 14.5. The Under has plenty of value here.
Klay Thompson Hasn’t Been Consistent!
Klay Thompson has scored at least 15 points in just 46% of games this season. He’s also added at least 15 points in one of his last five games and has added no more than seven points in three of his last four games. He hasn’t even earned more than 30 minutes in six consecutive games leading up to this one. His usage is even below 20% over the last ten games.
In addition, Thompson has shot just 37.9% from the field and has hit only 30.5% from downtown over the last ten games. He hasn’t even averaged ten shots per game in the previous ten games.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Kings defense that ranks 20th in points allowed to small forwards. Yet, the Kings still rank third in the NBA regarding the three-point percentage allowed to small forwards. They’re also 5th in three-pointers attempted by small forwards this season. Plus, the Kings rank 9th in field goals attempted from small forwards this season.
Don’t expect Klay Thompson to be a major part of Dallas’ offense tonight. The Kings typically do a good job against small forwards and haven’t allowed many attempts to begin with.
The Pick
I’m on Klay Thompson to go Under 14.5 points. Trust the AI Model!
NBA Pick: Klay Thompson Under 14.5 Points (-129) at Bet365
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