The NBA Play-In Tournament has two eight seeds left for the taking. The Miami Heat will battle the Atlanta Hawks for the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed in the playoffs, while the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.
Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, I asked the AI Model for its best bets in both games and shared them below.
Picks Summary
- Dyson Daniels Under 12.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 Points (-130) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, April 18, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
Dyson Daniels Should Be Held In Check!
Dyson Daniels has scored at least 13 points in 52% of games this season. However, he’s only added at least 13 points in two of his last five games and has averaged just 11.4 points per game against the Heat in five head-to-head matchups against them.
Overall, he’s added at least 13 points in just one of those five games against the Heat.
Daniels’s usage has recently dipped. In the first play-in tournament game, he used just 13.9% of his time against the Magic. Additionally, he’s shot just 20% from downtown and hasn’t even made a three in his last three games. Beyond that, he’s only attempted 11.4 shots per game over the last ten. However, he’s taken below that average in three consecutive matchups.
Daniels has hit ten or fewer points in three straight games and will now take on a Heat defense that ranks fourth in the NBA in points allowed to shooting guards. Furthermore, the Heat are good at limiting free throws to shooting guards and rank 6th in the NBA in free throws made via shooting guards. Daniels doesn’t have much potential against a top-ten defense like the Miami Heat’s.
The AI Model suggests fading Daniels, and I agree.
The Pick
Dyson Daniels isn’t much of a scoring threat for the Atlanta Hawks. Back the Under 12.5 Points in this game.
NBA Pick: Dyson Daniels Under 12.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Friday, April 18, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT FedExForum
Daniel Gafford Will Make a Difference!
Daniel Gafford has added at least nine points in four consecutive games for the Dallas Mavericks. He added nine points against the Kings in a 120-106 win yesterday.
Gafford isn’t getting a massive amount of chances. But when he does, he’s making the most of it. Gafford has shot 73.6% from the field and mostly gets dunks and layups. Since he’s taking 5.5 shots per game, Gafford only needs to make four shots to get to eight points. That’s not asking for much, especially if the Mavericks continue to score 120 points per game.
Meanwhile, Memphis ranks 23rd in the NBA in points allowed to centers. The Grizzlies also rank 24th in field goals attempted allowed to centers. Therefore, it’s likely Gafford will get his looks. He usually knocks down most shots that he gets.
The Grizzlies have also sent centers to the foul line at a top-ten rate in the NBA. Gafford isn’t the best foul shooter, but we’re looking for only eight points. A couple of foul shots at the line would certainly help us get there.
Gafford will likely play about 20 minutes in this game. He’s averaged more than 20 minutes in seven of his last ten games. That’s another great thing about Gafford. He’s super consistent and isn’t relied on as the only center. He won’t get in heavy foul trouble playing just 20 minutes of game action as a backup center.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the AI Model and back Daniel Gafford to earn at least eight points in this Western Conference Play-In Tournament. He’s been hitting this line with ease lately.
NBA Pick: Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 Points (-130) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
