Although our slate of six games is smaller, there’s still plenty of value on the board. I asked the AI Model for its best bets and shared them below.
Picks Summary
- Grizzlies-Heat Over 226.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Timberwolves-Nets Over 215.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Lakers -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, April 03, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
The AI Model predicts that the Grizzlies and Heat will combine for 228 points tonight. However, Caesars has the total at 226.5, which means the over has some value in tonight’s contest.
What Happened To The Grizzlies?
The Memphis Grizzlies are 44-32 and on the verge of the playoffs. However, the Grizzlies fired their head coach and now have lost four straight games.
Ultimately, the defense has allowed at least 125 points in three of the last four games. At least one team has scored at least 117 in each of the last five games.
The Grizzlies have still shot a 55.7% effective field goal percentage and have earned 31.8% of offensive rebounds. As long as Memphis keeps turnovers down, they’ll get solid looks and should at least score around its average.
What Got Into The Heat?
All of a sudden, the Miami Heat have been winning. The team has scored at least 112 points in each of their last five games, which have all resulted in wins. The Heat are coming off a massive 124-103 win over the Boston Celtics on the road, which was super impressive.
Ultimately, the Heat will battle a Memphis team that already fouls frequently. The Heat figures to add many points at the foul line. In addition, the Heat should be able to limit turnovers and take more shots, which will help.
Consider the Over 226.5 and back the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Over 226.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, April 03, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Barclays Center
The AI Model suggests the Nets and Timberwolves will add 217 points together in tonight’s game. However, the total at Bet365 is currently just 215.5. Consider the Over in this game as well.
The Nets Don’t Defend
The Brooklyn Nets are moving on to next year. The Nets don’t defend. They just want some good prospects next season.
Brooklyn has allowed 116.8 points per 100 possessions this season. Teams have also shot a 55.9% effective field goal percentage and gotten to the foul line frequently against the Nets.
The Timberwolves will be no different. Minnesota is a top-ten offense and has added a 19.9 free throw rate. The Timberwolves also have the edge on the offensive glass and should get a ton of high-quality looks. They’ve already shot a 55.4% effective field goal percentage this year.
The Nets Are Playing Better Offensively
The Nets have scored at least 113 points in back-to-back games. The Nets have shown some life on offense behind their newly acquired center, Drew Timme.
The team has scored only 109 points per 100 possessions. That will not change throughout the season, but we still need to consider how the Nets have played recently.
Minnesota will likely dominate this game, but if the Nets hold their own, the over looks enticing.
NBA Pick: Over 215.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, April 03, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model believes the Lakers will escape the Warriors with a two-point win, 115-113. Right now, you can buy the Lakers at -1 at Caesars. That’s the best play on the board.
Can The Warriors Dominate The Offensive Glass?
The Golden State Warriors have won three consecutive games heading into this one. Their offense has scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions and has shot just a 53.6% effective field goal percentage.
Ultimately, the Warriors have added 29.9% of offensive rebounds per game, which is the seventh-best in the NBA. Yet, that’s about all they are good at. Golden State has a below-average free-throw rate and isn’t an efficient shooting team.
Meanwhile, the Lakers have limited teams to 114.5 points per 100 possessions and a 54.1% effective field goal percentage. It’s also difficult to get to the foul line against them.
The Lakers Are Better Shooters!
The Los Angeles Lakers have scored 115.7 points per 100 possessions while shooting a 55.8% effective field goal percentage.
The Lakers have a better overall offense this season and lead the NBA in free throw rate on offense. The Lakers shouldn’t have any problems adding points from the charity stripe. After all, the Warriors have allowed a 19.3 free throw rate.
That could be the difference. Take the Lakers at -1.
NBA Pick: Lakers -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
