We’ve got a loaded NBA slate on the schedule tonight. I took advantage of this and added three best bets using the predictions of the AI Model. Check out what the red-hot model thinks about tonight’s games before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Warriors ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Pelicans +13.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Mavericks +10.5 (-115) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, April 04, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
The AI Model predicts the Warriors will earn a two-point victory over the Nuggets at home. Meanwhile, the Warriors are +110 on the moneyline. That’s straight value!
The Warriors Will Look For Their 5th Straight Win!
The Golden State Warriors have won four consecutive games. They’ve scored at least 123 points in three straight games and earned all those four wins on the road. They’re home now, which should help them even more.
Ultimately, the Warriors’ offense is average. Yet, they’ve improved drastically since Jimmy Butler joined them at the trade deadline. The team has limited turnovers to 14.3%, and the Nuggets aren’t much of a turnover threat. Plus, the Warriors have added 30% of offensive rebounds. That’s another area where the Nuggets haven’t excelled defensively.
Don’t Sleep On The Warriors!
Many times, the team with the best player wins the game. Nikola Jokic is typically that guy.
However, the Warriors are one of the few defenses that can get stops. The Warriors have limited opponents to 112.4 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has also added 15.6% of turnovers and has given up only 27% of offensive rebounds.
The Nuggets will see the foul line more often but that shouldn’t be enough to get the win.
The Pick
Consider the Warriors at +110.
NBA Pick: Warriors ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Friday, April 04, 2025 – 10:30 PM EDT at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model suggests the Lakers will earn a 116-104 win over the Pelicans tonight. However, the Pelicans are +13.5 and would still cover in this scenario. Consider the Pelicans at +13.5.
Can The Pelicans Still Dominate The Offensive Glass?
The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled offensively all year. Their performance was so bad that the team decided to bench its key starters for the rest of the season in hopes of a better draft pick.
That said, the Pelicans have still added 29.3% of offensive rebounds. If they can stay aggressive on the offensive glass, the Pelicans will have an opportunity to at least cover in this game.
The Pelicans’ front office wants to “tank,” but the players and coaches won’t actually tank the game. They’ve just got to play second-tier players. Still, these second-tier players are looking for long-term deals in the future. They’ll play their tails off.
The Lakers Must Hit Shots… Or Else
The Lakers must hit their shots against the Pelicans. Otherwise, they could lose the game. The Lakers have struggled on the offensive glass, adding just 25.6% of offensive rebounds.
If shots don’t fall, I wouldn’t be so confident in the Lakers earning second chances. Plus, the Lakers like to get to the foul line a lot, but the Pelicans still rank 13th in defensive free throw rate.
The Pick
I’m buying the Pelicans at +13.5.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +13.5 (-110) at Bet365
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Friday, April 04, 2025 – 10:30 PM EDT at Intuit Dome
The AI Model projects the Clippers will earn a nine-point win over the Mavericks. However, the Mavericks are +10.5 against the spread and would still cover if this played out.
Are The Mavericks Back?
The Dallas Mavericks have won three of their last four games. They’ve got Anthony Davis back in the mix, though he’s questionable for tonight.
Still, Dallas’s offense has been above-average this season. The Mavericks have scored 115.8 points per 100 possessions and shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.4%. Ultimately, the Mavericks are good at getting to the foul line and continue to limit turnovers.
Don’t expect a ton of offensive rebounds but the Mavericks should still do most things well on offense.
It’s Hard To Trust Los Angeles!
The Los Angeles Clippers have scored just 114.3 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s worse than the Mavericks!
Ultimately, Dallas has been weak on the defensive glass and could give many second chances. Still, the Mavericks have limited teams to a 54.1% effective field goal percentage, which is 9th in the league. If the Mavericks can limit good shots and keep the Clippers away from the foul line, they’ll stay in this game.
The Pick
Back Dallas at +10.5.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +10.5 (-115) at BetMGM
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
