Most of us at the top-rated sportsbooks will be paying attention to tonight’s Final Four. However, don’t forget that there’s value in the NBA tonight as well! Using the AI Model, I’ve listed three best bets for tonight’s small NBA slate.
Picks Summary
- Pistons ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Bucks/Heat Over 214 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Mavericks +8.5 (-115) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Detroit Pistons
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
The AI Model predicts the Pistons will earn a two-point win over the Grizzlies, 120-118. Meanwhile, the Pistons are +110 on the moneyline. That’s the play.
The Pistons Clinched The Playoffs!
The Detroit Pistons have already clinched the playoffs. They’ve had the best turnaround of any team this season. Look for the Pistons to keep that momentum going. The Pistons might not get the easiest shots against the Grizzlies. However, Memphis has still allowed 28.7% of offensive rebounds and a 20.6 free throw rate.
These are two areas where the Pistons should be able to take advantage of. If the Pistons can add a high rate of second-chance points and get to the foul line at a high rate, they’ll be well on their way to a victory.
Detroit’s Defense Is Wild!
The Detroit defense brings back memories of the past. The Pistons have limited teams to 112.9 points per 100 possessions and are above average in every major category except defensive free-throw rate.
The Grizzlies will find themselves at the foul line at a good pace tonight. But the turnovers should be high and the offensive rebounds will be harder to come by against the Pistons.
The Pick
Grab the Pistons at +110 as underdogs at home.
NBA Pick: Pistons ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
The AI Model suggests the Heat and Bucks will combine for 217 points. Meanwhile, the total is currently sitting at 214. That’s a solid difference and proves that the Over has some value according to our model.
The Bucks Will Find Good Looks
The Milwaukee Bucks always get good looks. They have scored 116.5 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 57.3% effective field goal percentage. That’s good for third in the NBA.
Ultimately, the Bucks have kept turnovers down. They’re just not good on the offensive glass. But as long as the Bucks get those quality shots, they’ll score points at a very good pace tonight.
The Heat Must Keep Turnovers Down
The Miami Heat also aren’t great on the offensive glass. We won’t see many second chances in this game. That said, the Heat are very good at limiting turnovers. If the Heat can do that, they’ll get more shots and ultimately score higher.
Even better, the Bucks have added just 12.7% of turnovers and rank 27th in that department. The Heat won’t see the foul line often, but like the Bucks, they should get a lot of good looks and keep turnovers down.
The Pick
Take the Over 214. There’s value here.
NBA Pick: Bucks/Heat Over 214 (-110) at Bet365
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 10:30 PM EDT at Intuit Dome
The AI Model projects the Mavericks will only lose to the Clippers, 115-107. That’s an eight-point loss, but the Mavericks are +8.5. Dallas would still cover in this scenario.
Can The Mavericks Even-Up The Series?
Last night, the Dallas Mavericks fell to the Los Angeles Clippers, 114-91. The Mavericks played without Anthony Davis, but he’s expected to be back for tonight’s game. That should give Mavericks bettors more hope.
After all, the Clippers are one of the best defenses in the NBA. Yet, the Mavericks typically get to the foul line at a high rate and have still scored at a slightly above-average rate.
Can The Clippers Continue To Dominate Offensively?
For one, the Clippers lucked out with Anthony Davis out yesterday. Los Angeles has scored only 114.3 points per 100 possessions, which is worse than Dallas’ number. The Clippers are also weak on the offensive glass, earning under 27% of offensive rebounds.
They likely won’t take advantage of Dallas’ inept ability on the defensive glass.
The Pick
I don’t know if Dallas will win, but I like the Mavericks to at least cover. With some film and adjustments, the Mavericks should play a tighter game tonight.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +8.5 (-115) at BetMGM
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
