It’s been five days since we’ve had a solid slate in the NBA. But tonight, we can finally get back to our regularly scheduled programming! There are 13 games on tonight’s NBA card. Here’s what the AI Model thinks you should consider at top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Timberwolves -2.5 (-110)
- Nuggets/Trail Blazers Over 229.5 (-105)
- Kings -4.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Knicks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, December 19, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Target Center
The AI Model believes the Timberwolves will add a four-point win over the Knicks tonight. With the Timberwolves currently at -2.5, Minnesota is the play against the spread.
Minnesota Can Get Stops!
The New York Knicks have become one of the best offenses in the NBA. Only a few teams can stop them. One of those teams is the Timberwolves.
Minnesota has held opponents to 107.4 points per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves rank third in that category, 5th in defensive effective field goal percentage and 4th in defensive turnovers. They match up well here.
New York Doesn’t Play Defense Like Minnesota
The difference in this game should be the defense.
I acknowledged the Timberwolves play solid defense. However, the Knicks don’t. New York ranks 16th in points per 100 possessions and has gained just 13.6% of turnovers. The Knicks have also allowed an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%, which ranks 15th in the NBA.
New York’s defense will hurt them tonight.
The Pick
Take a look at the Timberwolves at -2.5 per our AI Model.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, December 19, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Our AI Model thinks the Nuggets and Trail Blazers will combine for 235 points. However, sportsbooks are carrying a total of 229.5. That means there’s a slight advantage on the Over.
Could Portland’s Defense Be Any Worse?
The answer is yes. Yes, it can. The Portland Trail Blazers have allowed 117.1 points per 100 possessions. This defense has earned 15.8% of turnovers, but that’s all that’s gone well for them. The Trail Blazers rank 22nd in defensive effective field goal percentage and 30th in defensive rebounding. In addition, the Blazers are 26th in defensive free throw rate.
It’s one thing to be bad in these areas. It’s another thing when the opposition is great at these things offensively. The Nuggets rank 4th in free throw rate offensively and have added 28.9% of offensive rebounds. Denver will take advantage.
Portland Can Earn Second Chances
The Blazers have only shot a 50.9% effective field goal percentage. However, what stands out is Portland’s ability to grab offensive rebounds and earn second chances.
The Blazers have grabbed 30.9% of offensive rebounds, while the Nuggets have allowed 28.7%. These second chances should at least help Portland stay in this game offensively.
The Pick
I’ll back the Over 234.5 with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Nuggets/Trail Blazers Over 229.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, December 19, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model suggests the Kings will dominate the Lakers by six at home. Yet, the Kings are just -4.5 against the spread. Back Sacramento against the spread.
The Lakers Don’t Rebound!
The Los Angeles Lakers have shot a 54.5% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 15th in the NBA. However, they still score just 113.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 16th in the NBA and is slightly below average.
Los Angeles has no problems getting to the foul line, which should continue tonight. However, the Lakers rarely rebound off misses. Los Angeles has added only 24.6% of offensive rebounds, which isn’t ideal, primarily because the Kings have held teams to 26.6% of offensive rebounds on defense.
Meanwhile, the Kings are the exact opposite. Sacramento has earned 27.5% of offensive rebounds, while the Lakers have given up 29.2% of offensive rebounds. The Kings will win on the glass tonight.
The Kings Also Shoot It Better!
The Kings will rebound better and shoot better. They have shot an effective field goal percentage of 55% and have turned the ball over only 13.2% of the time. If the Kings hit more shots, earn more rebounds, and turn the ball over fewer times, it won’t matter if the Lakers get to the foul line more. That won’t be enough.
The Pick
Let’s take the Kings at -4.5.
NBA Pick: Kings -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
