With just four games on the NBA slate, I asked the AI Model to give me three of its best bets tonight. Here’s what it came up with for you to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Heat +10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Lakers +7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Nets +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, December 02, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at TD Garden
The AI Model believes the Miami Heat will lose to the Boston Celtics by nine points. However, the Heat are +10, giving Miami the value in tonight’s showdown.
Miami’s Top-12 Offense
The Miami Heat have scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking 12th in the NBA. This is large because the Heat rarely turn the ball over. The Heat have added just 12.8% of turnovers, allowing them to score many points.
With Boston only earning 13.9% of turnovers on defense, the Heat are more likely to be able to limit mistakes and take a good number of shots. This would help them stay in the game against a Celtics defense that hasn’t been elite this year. Boston ranks 10th in defensive points per 100 possessions. That’s a quality number. But nothing like it was last season.
Limiting Boston At The Line
The Boston Celtics have a 20.6 free throw rate, which ranks 12th in the league. However, Miami ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive free throw rate. Boston must rely heavily on its shooting if the Celtics can’t earn freebies at the foul line.
The Celtics can score at a super high rate. But if you’re not doing the little things well, having a complete game on offense is hard.
The Pick
Let’s grab the Heat at +10.
NBA Pick: Heat +10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Monday, December 02, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Target Center
Our AI Model suggests the Lakers will lose to Minnesota 115-108. Yet, the Lakers are 7.5-point underdogs on the road. Even with a seven-point loss, the Lakers would cover against the spread.
Can The Lakers Get Shots To Fall?
The Los Angeles Lakers won’t have Austin Reaves or D’Angelo Russell tonight. However, they have still added 116 points per 100 possessions, which is 7th best in the NBA.
With Anthony Davis on fire and LeBron James leading the charge, the Lakers are still an efficient offense that can score at a high rate against the Timberwolves.
Minnesota Can’t Match
The Timberwolves made some big moves before the season began. However, those moves haven’t worked out.
After a wild playoff run last season, Minnesota has added just 113.2 points per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves have turned the ball over 16.1% of the time and have added just 26.7% of offensive rebounds. That just won’t be enough to match what the Lakers can provide on offense.
The Pick
I’ll happily take the Lakers at +7.5 here.
NBA Pick: Lakers +7.5 (-110) at Bet365
Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
Monday, December 02, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at United Center
The AI Model thinks the Bulls will add a 120-114 win over the Nets. However, the Nets are 6.5-point underdogs. That would be enough to cover a six-point loss.
Brooklyn Can Score A Lot
The Brooklyn Nets don’t get enough love on offense. While they’ve got some major injuries to guys like Cam Thomas, the Nets have still added 114.5 points per 100 possessions. The offense has added a 55.7% effective field goal percentage and has earned a 21 free throw rate.
The Bulls could stop the Nets from getting to the foul line. However, don’t expect the Bulls to defend most shots. After all, the Bulls have allowed a 56.3% effective field goal percentage and have allowed 118.9 points per 100 possessions.
Winning The Turnover Battle
The Nets aren’t defending very well, either. They’ve allowed a 56.5% effective field goal percentage this season.
However, the difference will be in the turnovers. The Nets have added more than 15% of turnovers per game this season, while the Bulls have allowed 14.9%. If the Nets win the turnover battle and keep offensive rebounds lower than usual, they can cover against the spread.
The Pick
The AI Model loves the Nets at +6.5. So do I.
NBA Pick: Nets +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
