With no games on tomorrow’s NBA schedule, we’ve got an exciting 14-game slate tonight in the NBA. I’ve asked the AI Model for its thoughts on all 14 games and added the best three bets to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
And as always, don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice, featuring the Celtics vs. Magic and Clippers vs. Grizzlies games!
Picks Summary
- Suns +5 (-110)
- Pacers/Warriors Over 230.5 (-110)
- Lakers -6 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, December 23, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
The AI Model believes the Suns will only lose to the Nuggets by four points. However, the Suns are +5 against the spread. Take Phoenix in this spot.
Scoring Is Never an Issue for Phoenix!
The Phoenix Suns rank 8th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. They have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% and have turned the ball over just 14.4% of the time.
You won’t see Phoenix deliver on the offensive glass. However, the Suns are very good at getting to the foul line. Denver also makes it difficult to get to the foul line, allowing only a 16.9 free-throw rate. However, shooting and limiting turnovers will be easy.
No Second Chances For Denver
The only way the Suns can stay in tonight’s game against the Nuggets is by limiting Denver on the offensive glass. Denver will make some difficult shots. They’re a good offense. However, when the Nuggets miss, they’ve added 28.7% of offensive rebounds.
Phoenix can keep that number down, primarily since it’s held teams to 25.4% of offensive rebounds.
The Pick
Roll with the AI Model and back the Suns at +5.
NBA Pick: Suns +5 (-110) at Bet365
Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, December 23, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
Our AI Model thinks Golden State and Indiana will combine for 232 points in tonight’s showdown. However, the total is only at 230.5. That means the Model really likes the Over.
The Pacers Are Doing Great Offensively
The Indiana Pacers have scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s only good for 13th in the NBA. But lost in that is that the Pacers have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%.
While the Warriors are usually very good at defending, Golden State still allows a 20.2 free throw rate. Even if the Pacers don’t shoot as well as their typical averages, Indiana should see more opportunity at the foul line. That’ll only help.
Indiana Isn’t So Good On Defense
The Pacers have held opponents to the bottom ten points per 100 possessions. In addition, opponents have shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.4% and allowed 28.5% of offensive rebounds.
Teams have also added a higher free throw rate, and the Pacers have only turned the ball over 14.7% of the time this season. Meanwhile, the Warriors have only turned the ball over 14.5% of the time and have gained more than 29% of offensive rebounds.
If Golden State continues to do those two things, they’ll also stick around on the offensive side of things.
The Pick
Consider the Over 230.5 in this game.
NBA Pick: Pacers/Warriors Over 230.5 (-110) at Bet365
Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Monday, December 23, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model suggests the Lakers will win by seven points at home over the Pistons. The Lakers are just -6. Taking Los Angeles against the spread is easily the best play in this game.
A Bottom-Ten Offense
The Detroit Pistons have scored just 111.6 points per 100 possessions. That’s only 20th in the NBA. The Pistons have shot a solid, effective field goal percentage of 54.4% and have gained 28.6% of offensive rebounds. However, Detroit has also turned the ball over 16.3% of the time and rarely gets to the foul line.
Ultimately, the Pistons will struggle to get to the foul line. The Lakers rank sixth in the NBA in defensive free-throw rate. Therefore, the Lakers can keep Detroit away from the foul line and force turnovers at a high rate. This will make it harder for the Pistons to get a good volume up and shoot a strong percentage from the floor. It will also affect how many offensive rebounds the Pistons can grab.
Fewer Turnovers For Los Angeles!
While the Pistons turn the ball over frequently, the Lakers simply don’t. Los Angeles has turned the ball over just 14% of the time and has added a 22.1 free-throw rate. The Lakers will do the little things that the Pistons normally don’t.
That said, don’t expect the Lakers to dominate the offensive glass. However, they should be able to score at a higher rate just because they have fewer turnovers. That’ll be key.
The Pick
Take the Lakers at -6.
NBA Pick: Lakers -6 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
