We’ve got another solid slate in the NBA tonight. Therefore, I went to the AI Model and asked for the best three bets for tonight’s games. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Rockets -4 (-110)
- Jazz +15 (-110)
- Warriors -2.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at Toyota Center
The AI Model projects the Houston Rockets will add a 113-108 win over the Timberwolves at home tonight. Meanwhile, the Rockets are -4 against the spread. The best bet for this game would be the Rockets at -4.
Houston Can Stop Minnesota’s Offense!
The Minnesota Timberwolves are an above-average offense, shooting a 54.9% effective field goal percentage. Minnesota has also added 28.7% of offensive rebounds and a 19.7 free throw rate.
These are all quality numbers. However, the Rockets have limited teams to a 52.7% effective field goal percentage, forcing 15.1% of turnovers. That amounted to just 110.2 points per 100 possessions allowed by the Rockets. Minnesota could struggle to find consistency on offense in this game.
Can Houston Dominate The Offensive Glass?
The Houston Rockets typically don’t take great shots. However, they’re so active on the offensive glass that it sometimes doesn’t even matter. The Rockets have hauled in 35.5% of offensive rebounds and lead the NBA in that category. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have still allowed close to 28% of offensive rebounds.
Look for the Rockets to make a difference on the offensive glass.
The Pick
Ride with the AI Model and back the Rockets at -4.
NBA Pick: Rockets -4 (-110) at Bet365
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at Delta Center
The AI Model believes the Jazz will lose a home game to the Thunder, 124-113. However, that’s only an 11-point deficit. Right now, Utah is +15 against the spread. The Jazz have a good chance at covering per our Model.
Can Utah Keep Competing?
The Utah Jazz closed out the first half of the regular season with a 12-point win against the Lakers and a four-point overtime loss to the Clippers. They are at least competing despite having just 13 wins this season. Ultimately, Utah fell to the Thunder on the road, 123-114, back in January.
The Jazz won’t force tough shots or even add many turnovers. But if the Thunder have an off-night shooting, Oklahoma City will struggle to add second chances off offensive rebounds. Plus, the Thunder aren’t aggressive enough and don’t see the foul line consistently.
Utah Does The Little Things!
The Jazz won’t get crazy good looks and will get caught turning the ball over often in this game. However, when the ball isn’t turned over, the Jazz can add a bunch of second chances with 31% of offensive rebounds.
It’s also likely Utah gets to the foul line more, knowing Utah has added a 20.7 free throw rate. That will work out well, considering the Thunder have allowed a 22.1 free throw rate.
The Pick
Let’s ride the Jazz at +15.
NBA Pick: Jazz +15 (-110) at Bet365
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model predicts the Warriors will add a three-point road win over the Kings tonight. Meanwhile, the Warriors are -2.5 and would cover against the spread in that scenario.
The Warriors Are Improving!
The Golden State Warriors have scored 112.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s only 18th-best in the league. However, with Jimmy Butler on the squad, the Warriors are playing at a much higher level on offense.
Additionally, the Warriors don’t often get to the foul line. But that could change, as the Kings have allowed a 20.4 free-throw rate on defense this season. Golden State should get high-quality looks against the Kings, if nothing else.
Can The Kings Provide Enough Offense?
Per the metrics, the Kings are the better offense. Sacramento has consistently scored more points per game, adding 115.9 points per 100 possessions.
However, the Warriors have the better defense. They have held opponents to 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has also allowed just 26.7% of offensive rebounds and has held teams to a 54.3% effective field goal percentage. It’s more likely the Warriors force harder shots in this game.
The Pick
Let’s go with the Warriors at -2.5.
NBA Pick: Warriors -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
