We’ve got a loaded slate in the NBA tonight, including multiple games featured on ESPN. It’s a big night, so let’s take advantage of it with our AI Model and play the best three projected plays at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Timberwolves -6 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Heat/Lakers Over 217.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Nets/Clippers Over 213.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at Target Center
The AI Model suggests the Timberwolves will add a 112-105 win over the Warriors at home tonight. Meanwhile, you can find Minnesota at -6. They’d cover the six-point spread with a seven-point win.
Golden State Is No Longer a Threat!
The Golden State Warriors used to be an offensive powerhouse, but they are no longer. They have scored just 111 points per 100 possessions and rank 23rd in effective field goal percentage. The Warriors also rank dead last in free throw rate.
Ultimately, the Timberwolves can take advantage. Minnesota ranks fourth in defensive effective field goal percentage and fifth in defensive free throw rate.
Trust The Minnesota Offense
The Timberwolves have a much more efficient offense. Minnesota has scored only 112.7 points per 100 possessions but has still shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. They’ve also brought down 27.7% of offensive rebounds.
The turnovers will need to stay down, and the foul shooting will need to tick up just slightly. But if Minnesota can handle those two areas, they’ll get past a washed Warriors team.
The Pick
Grab Minnesota at -6 per our AI Model.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -6 (-110) at Bet365
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
Our AI Model believes the Lakers and Heat will combine to add 219 points in tonight’s game. Yet, the total is set at 217.5. That means the over has some value according to our Model.
The Heat Must Continue To Limit Turnovers
The Miami Heat are adjusting to life without Jimmy Butler. Their offense is still average, scoring 113.1 points per 100 possessions. In addition, they have shot a 53.7% effective field goal percentage, which isn’t great.
Still, the Heat match up well. Miami has held turnovers to 13.5% and has added a 20.5 offensive free throw rate. The Heat should at least be able to limit turnovers, knowing the Lakers have grabbed only 14% of turnovers per game this season. Also, don’t be surprised if the Heat succeed more on the offensive glass. After all, the Lakers have allowed 29% of offensive rebounds.
Los Angeles Can Still Score Consistently
The Lakers have scored 114.2 points per 100 possessions, slightly above the average. Los Angeles might not see the foul line as often as they’re used to against the Heat, but the Lakers should still be able to shoot a high effective field goal percentage and limit turnovers to below 14%, as they have in most games this season.
The Pick
The Lakers are good enough to keep pace with the Heat on offense. Take the Over 217.5.
NBA Pick: Heat/Lakers Over 217.5 (-110) at Bet365
Brooklyn Nets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome
The AI Model believes the Nets and Clippers will combine for 215 points. You’ll find the total at 213.5, meaning the Over is the way to go.
Brooklyn Is Coming Off a Major Scoring Output
The Brooklyn Nets scored 132 points in last night’s 132-114 win over the Trail Blazers. Ultimately, the Nets are starting to get healthy with Cam Johnson, D’Angelo Russell and others back in the lineup.
The offense will never be elite. Still, Brooklyn has shot a 53.5% effective field goal percentage, still among the top 20 in the NBA. The Nets have also landed at the foul line at an above-average rate this season. They have momentum and should still be capable of scoring at a high rate tonight.
The Clippers Can Take Advantage Of Brooklyn’s Defense
The Clippers certainly haven’t been consistent on offense. They’ve scored just 110.2 points per 100 possessions and have turned the ball over 16.5% of the time.
That said, the Nets rank dead last in defensive effective field goal percentage, giving the Clippers ample opportunity to find good looks and hit open shots. Furthermore, the Nets rank 29th in defensive free throw rate. The Clippers should also get to the foul line at a higher rate.
The Pick
The Over 213.5 is the way to go in this one.
NBA Pick: Nets/Clippers Over 213.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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