While there are only five games on tonight’s NBA slate, there are still a few fascinating games to look at. I asked the AI Model for its projections and wrote about the three best bets on the slate. Take a peek below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Thunder ML (-125) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Kings -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, January 16, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Paycom Center
The AI Model suggests the Oklahoma City Thunder will escape the Cleveland Cavaliers with a 118-115 win at home. This should be an exciting finish, but the Model prefers the Thunder to come out victorious in this game.
The Thunder Will Look For Revenge!
Just a week ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers, 129-122. Now they’ll be the home team and look for revenge against the Cavs.
The Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the NBA. They’ve limited teams to a 49.9% effective field goal percentage and have forced 18.7% of turnovers. There’s no promise they’ll put up these numbers against the Cavaliers, but the Thunder should at least make it difficult for the Cavaliers to add good shots throughout the game.
Can The Thunder Win The Glass?
Both teams have excellent defenses. But the team that wins more second chances will likely win the game.
The Cavaliers have given up 28.3% of offensive rebounds, while the Thunder have gained 25.6%. If Cleveland can increase its average on the offensive glass despite Isaiah Hartenstein’s absence, it will likely escape with a win.6
The Pick
I’ll trust the AI Model and take the Oklahoma City Thunder on the moneyline at home.
NBA Pick: Thunder ML (-125) at Bet365
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, January 16, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Our AI Model believes the Blazers will cover a 6.5-point spread with a six-point loss to the Clippers at home. Los Angeles is coming off a massive blowout win, but it’s still a back-to-back. That favors the Blazers.
The Clippers Aren’t Always The Best Offense!
The Los Angeles Clippers will face a Blazers defense that has been terrible this season. However, the Clippers have not been much better on offense.
Los Angeles has scored 110.8 points per 100 possessions, thanks to 16.5% of turnovers. Meanwhile, the Blazers have grabbed 15.1% of turnovers, which should keep them in this game.
Can Portland Add Offensive Rebounds
The big question in this game is whether the Blazers can still succeed on the offensive glass. Portland has added 30.7% of offensive rebounds, but the Clippers have given up just 25.5%.
If Portland can stay busy on the glass and earn more trips to the foul line, the Blazers should be in a good position to cover the spread.
The Pick
Let’s side with the AI Model and take the Blazers at +6.5.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, January 16, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model believes the Kings will win 117-111 over the Rockets at home. That would be a six-point win, but Caesars has the Kings at only -4. Take Sacramento here.
Houston Can Be Stopped!
The Houston Rockets have scored 115.9 points per 100 possessions. But that’s mainly due to their ability on the offensive glass. The Rockets have shot just a 51.5% effective field goal percentage and have added a below-average free throw rate.
Houston has just added nearly 35% of offensive rebounds per game, which has allowed the Rockets more second chances. The issue here is that the Kings have allowed just 24.9% of offensive rebounds per game this year. The Kings currently lead the league in defensive rebounding. That won’t help the Rockets dominate the offensive glass for extra possessions.
The Kings Can Do The Little Things Better
Sacramento has shot a 54.2% effective field goal percentage. That’s already much better than what the Rockets offer.
That said, the Rockets have limited teams to a 52.4% effective field goal percentage. It’s also unlikely that the Kings shoot very well. Yet, Sacramento has more of a chance on the offensive glass and gets to the foul line at a higher rate.
Those two areas favor the Kings.
The Pick
Take the Kings at -4 at home tonight.
NBA Pick: Kings -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
