There might be only five games on the NBA slate. However, the AI Model still found insane value for three of the five matchups. Let’s talk about it below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Magic -1.5 (-110)
- 76ers/Nuggets Under 229.5 (-110)
- Wizards +12.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
The AI Model suggests the Orlando Magic will add a three-point win on the road against the Toronto Raptors tonight. Meanwhile, the Magic are -1.5. A three-point win would be ideal for Magic bettors!
The Magic Do The Little Things Well!
The Orlando Magic haven’t shot the ball very well this season. The Magic have added an effective field goal percentage of 51.1%, which ranks 28th in the NBA.
However, the Magic have earned 28.8% of offensive rebounds and a 20.5% free-throw rate, which is where they can take advantage of the Raptors. After all, the Raptors have given up 29.4% of offensive rebounds and a 23.5 free throw rate. That defensive free throw rate is the worst in the NBA.
The Magic will dominate the glass and get to the foul line to score their points.
Toronto Can’t Keep Up
The Toronto Raptors likely won’t be able to keep up offensively. They’ve already scored just 111.1 points per 100 possessions and turned the ball over 16% of the time.
This doesn’t look appealing, especially since the Magic have earned 17.6% of turnovers on defense per game. The Raptors will likely turn the ball over frequently in this game, which will hurt them down the stretch.
The Pick
I’m taking Orlando at -1.5 and rolling with the Model.
NBA Pick: Magic -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Our AI Model predicts the Nuggets and 76ers will add 229 points in tonight’s contest. However, the total is stuck at 229.5 at all sportsbooks. That means the Under has slight value in tonight’s matchup.
Philly Is Dreadful!
The Philadelphia 76ers had this master plan to sit their stars and stay healthy for the playoffs. That plan is looking embarrassingly bad right now. The 76ers are 15-26, and Joel Embiid is hurt even more now.
Philadelphia thought it had the depth to compete with other teams, but it doesn’t. The offense has scored just 110.5 points per 100 possessions and has hit a 52.2% effective field goal percentage. That’s not good enough on a game-to-game basis.
Higher Turnovers For Denver?
The Denver Nuggets have a much better offense. They’ll likely win this game by a wide margin, which is ultimately why it will still likely go under.
The Nuggets will be fine offensively and score at a reasonable rate. It’s just that the 76ers can’t keep up. Plus, Philadelphia has earned 17.4% of turnovers on defense. If that continues, the Nuggets will lose out on more possessions to score more points.
The Pick
I’m with the AI Model and like the Under. It’s a fade of the 76ers.
NBA Pick: 76ers/Nuggets Under 229.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Wizards vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model believes the Wizards will only lose to the Lakers, 120-109. Meanwhile, the Wizards are +12.5. That screams value on Washington!
Trust Washington Tonight!
I know it’s hard to trust a Washington offense that has scored 105.6 points per 100 possessions. The Wizards’ offense is ultimately the worst in the NBA. However, they’re facing a Lakers team that ranks 23rd in defensive points per 100 possessions. The Lakers have also allowed a 55.6% effective field goal percentage and 28.9% of offensive rebounds.
Don’t expect the Wizards to earn a lot of points at the foul line. Yet, you should expect more offensive rebounds from the Wizards tonight. With more second chances and more shots, the Wizards should at least score enough to cover.
Less Opportunity For Los Angeles
The Lakers should also be solid offensively, with the Wizards allowing 120.3 points per 100 possessions. Right now, the Lakers have Anthony Davis and LeBron James listed as game-time decisions. If either one of these guys sits, the Wizards will be even more valuable at +12.5.
Additionally, the Lakers have added just 25% of offensive rebounds, so they’ll likely have fewer second-chance opportunities in this game.
The Pick
I’ll test my luck with the Wizards at +12.5.
NBA Pick: Wizards +12.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
