There are only four games on tonight’s slate, including a Rockets-Hawks game that was postponed back on January 11. Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, I asked the AI Model for its thoughts on these games and added three best bets that the AI Model loves tonight.
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Picks Summary
- Hawks +7 (-110)
- Bucks/Trail Blazers Over 229.5 (-110)
- Â Jazz +12 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
The AI Model believes the Hawks will only lose to the Rockets, 116-102. Yet, the Hawks are currently +7 against the spread, so there’s some substantial value on them at home tonight.
The Hawks Match Up Well!
The Houston Rockets are usually a solid offense. The Rockets have only shot an effective field goal percentage of 51.9% but have done well limiting turnovers and gaining offensive rebounds.
That said, the Hawks have allowed just 27.3% of offensive rebounds and earned 16.2% of turnovers. In addition, they have struggled to limit teams with their effective field goal percentage, but they are already consistently taking bad shots.
The Hawks match up well defensively against the Rockets tonight.
Atlanta Needs To Stay Aggressive!
The Hawks might hit a couple of more shots against the Rockets, thanks to a 53.3% effective field goal percentage this year. But they’ll mostly win this game by being aggressive.
The Hawks have added a 20.4 free throw rate, which ranks 7th in the NBA. Meanwhile, they’ll take on a Houston defense that ranks 16th in free throw rate. If the Hawks can get to the foul line consistently, they’ll at least keep this game tight.
The Pick
Side with the AI Model and take the Hawks at +7.
NBA Pick: Hawks +7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model suggests the Bucks and Blazers will score 230 points. Meanwhile, the total is 229.5 at almost every sportsbook. According to our model, the over is the play.
Milwaukee Won’t Miss!
The Milwaukee Bucks will battle a Portland defense that ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions and 23rd in effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Bucks have shot a 57.6% effective field goal percentage and rank inside the top ten in points per 100 possessions on offense.
The Bucks aren’t the best on the offensive glass, earning only 21.7% of offensive rebounds. However, the Blazers have given up 31.7% of offensive rebounds, giving the Bucks more chances at landing extra possessions.
Can Portland Limit Turnovers?
The Portland Trail Blazers won’t outshoot the Bucks, even at home. However, the Blazers must limit turnovers to stick around in the game.
Portland has allowed 16.4% of turnovers per game this season but will face a Bucks defense that ranks 27th in turnovers forced. If the Blazers can keep turnovers down, they’ll get more shots up, ultimately resulting in more points.
The Pick
Take a chance with the Over 229.5 here.
NBA Pick: Bucks/Trail Blazers Over 229.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Utah Jazz vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model believes the Jazz will lose 119-109 on the road against the Warriors. However, the Jazz are currently +12 against the spread. A 10-point loss would still earn the cover for the Jazz.
The Jazz Can Survive On The Line!
The Utah Jazz have scored 111.5 points per 100 possessions this year. That ranks 21st in the NBA, so while it’s below average, it’s not the worst rate in the league.
Ultimately, the issues stem from turnovers. The Jazz have turned the ball over 17.8% of the time, which ranks dead last. They’ll need to prevent turnovers from getting that high and instead find ways to get to the foul line. The Jazz rank 8th in free throw rate and will take on a Warriors club that ranks 18th defensively.
That’s where the Jazz can attack.
Golden State Isn’t What It Used To Be!
The Warriors used to be a top-tier offense behind Stephen Curry. But that’s not the case anymore. Instead, the Warriors rank 22nd in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and only rank 20th in points per 100 possessions.
That’s just slightly better than the Jazz. However, the Warriors have the lowest free throw rate in the NBA and solely rely on second chances. Still, the Jazz have limited offensive rebounds to 27.7%, which is about an average rate. That should be good enough to at least cover a double-digit spread.
The Pick
Take the Jazz at +12, thanks to our AI Model.
NBA Pick: Jazz +12 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
